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Knoxville & East TN Real Estate Market Update: Year-End 2025 Review & 2026 Outlook

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Happy New Year! As we close the book on 2025, the Knoxville and East Tennessee real estate markets are telling a fascinating story of normalization, returning balance, and new opportunities.

If 2025 was the year the market took a breath, 2026 is shaping up to be the year it finds its footing—especially with major news regarding mortgage rates hitting the headlines just yesterday.

Here is your comprehensive breakdown of the December 2025 numbers, a full-year review, and my top predictions for what lies ahead in 2026.

The Big Picture: Knoxville vs. East Tennessee

Overall, 2025 moved us toward a more balanced feel. Inventory is up, homes are taking longer to sell, and buyers finally have room to negotiate. However, the city and the region are behaving differently.

Knoxville: Strong Finish, Softening Prices

Knoxville had a dramatic finish to the year.

  • Sales: Up 12.5% year-over-year in December.
  • Inventory: Skyrocketed by 31.6%.
  • The Surprise: Despite the activity, pricing softened. The median sold price dipped 5% in December to $380,000.

Knoxville remains a tighter market than the region (2.9 months of supply), but the pricing dip suggests sellers are adjusting to the new reality.

East Tennessee: Building Momentum

The broader region is showing signs of a very strong start to 2026.

  • Pending Sales: While Knoxville pendings were up 6.1%, East Tennessee’s pending sales jumped 19%.
  • Balance: The region sits at 4.4 months of supply, making it a more balanced environment where buyers have genuine leverage.

Surrounding County Breakdown (Data Cards Below)

Real estate is hyper-local. To understand where the market is going, we have to look at the specific counties we serve. Here is how the numbers shook out for December and the full year of 2025.

Roane County

Roane is seeing a surge in activity, likely driven by spillover demand from Knoxville and lake-access lifestyle buyers.

  • The Data: Inventory is up 23.6% and pending sales jumped 14% in December.
  • Pricing: You might see a headline that prices jumped 25% in December, but don’t let that fool you. That is likely a “mix shift” (more expensive homes selling that month). The full-year appreciation is a steady, modest 3.17%.
  • The Takeaway: Roane is catching demand. Expect moderate appreciation and solid traffic in 2026.

Knox County

Knox County, the metro anchor, is showing clear signs of normalization.

  • The Data: Inventory is up significantly—nearly 29% year-over-year in December, with pending sales also up almost 10%.
  • Pricing: Despite the increased options and returning buyers, price growth is mild: median sales price rose just under 2% in December, and the full-year gain was just above 2%.
  • The Takeaway: This suggests a market that’s regained balance after the ultra-competitive years, with more choices for buyers and steady, sustainable price trends. Knox is still the area’s bellwether—more inventory, more buyers coming back, but prices are stabilizing rather than surging.

Anderson County

Anderson is the “Supply Leader” right now.

  • The Data: Inventory jumped 37.4% in December—the largest increase in this group.
  • Pricing: Prices held up (up 3.92% in Dec), but full-year growth was only 1.22%.
  • The Takeaway: Supply is rising faster than demand here. If rates drop, Anderson has the inventory to absorb buyers without instantly turning into chaos. It is currently a very buyer-friendly market.

Loudon County

Loudon remains the higher-priced, hybrid market catering to move-up buyers and retirees.

  • The Data: Pendings were up 15.7% in December, showing strong demand.
  • Pricing: The median price sits at $497,000.
  • The Takeaway: Loudon is payment-sensitive. Turnkey homes sell well, but dated or oddly located homes are sitting. Expect a “split market” in 2026 where condition dictates success.

Sevier County

Sevier is our most unique animal due to the investment and second-home dynamic.

  • The Data: Pendings were up a massive 22.74% in December.
  • Pricing: Full-year price growth was modest at 2.22%.
  • The Takeaway: This market is highly sensitive to interest rates. If rates stay low, Sevier could re-accelerate quickly, but pricing will depend heavily on investor appetite.

Blount County

Blount is the “Sleeping Giant” that just woke up.

  • The Data: Pending sales surged 38.8% in December—the biggest jump in the region.
  • Pricing: Prices remained flat (up roughly 1%).
  • The Takeaway: This is a classic sign of a heating market. Demand is surging, but buyers still have enough negotiating room to keep prices from spiking. If this momentum carries into Spring, expect a faster sales pace.

Community Spotlights: Farragut, Lenoir City, & Tellico Village

(Data Cards Below)

  • Farragut: Still supply-constrained. Sales were up nearly 47% in December. If rates drop, Farragut will feel it through competition.
  • Lenoir City: Acting like a healthy, balanced market. If rates drop, Lenoir City will feel it through affordability, as more buyers will qualify for loans.
  • Tellico Village: A lifestyle market. 2025 was much more balanced than 2024. If rates drop, Tellico will feel it through momentum and a strong Spring start.

The Game Changer: Mortgage Rates Drop to 5.99%

Just yesterday, we received major news: President Trump announced a push for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities.

The market reacted instantly. The 30-year fixed rate dropped to 5.99% today.

This is the first time we have seen a rate start with a “5” since 2023. This is a massive psychological barrier. Whether you are buying, selling, or refinancing, this changes the math and the mindset heading into 2026.

5 Predictions for the 2026 Housing Market

Based on the 2025 data and this new rate environment, here is what I expect:

  1. Buyers Will Re-Enter the Market: It’s not just about affordability; it’s about confidence. At 5.99%, buyers who have been on the sidelines will return.
  2. Pendings & Closings Will Improve: East TN already has pending momentum. Lower rates will convert those contracts into closings.
  3. Inventory Won’t Vanish: We have more inventory than a year ago. Even with higher demand, I don’t expect the shelves to clear overnight.
  4. Prices Will Stabilize: The price softening we saw in December (especially in Knoxville) should level out. We aren’t going back to double-digit appreciation, but we should see steady, modest growth.
  5. The “Split Market” Continues: Even with lower rates, buyers are picky. Updated, move-in-ready homes will fly. Overpriced or dated homes will still need price cuts.

The Bottom Line

2025 was a year of normalization. 2026 looks like a year of opportunity.

If rates hold at these levels, the pace of the market is going to change quickly. Strategy matters now more than ever. If you are thinking about buying or selling this year, let’s start planning now so you can take advantage of this shift.

Have questions about your specific home or neighborhood? Reach out to Cornerstone Realty Associates today.

Is the Knoxville Real Estate Market Finally Returning to Normal?

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If you have been following my recent market updates, you’ve likely heard me use one word repeatedly: Normalizing.

For the last few months, I have sensed a shift in the Knoxville real estate landscape. The frantic pace of the pandemic years has settled, and we are moving toward stability. Now, new data from First American confirms exactly what we’ve been seeing on the ground.

In this video, I break down a recent report from First American’s Chief Economist that highlights why Knoxville is leading the pack in the return to a balanced housing market.

The Key to Unlocking the Housing Market: New Listings

The article I reference in the video focuses on a crucial metric: New Listings.

While active inventory can increase simply because homes are sitting on the market longer, new listings represent fresh supply. This “flow” of new homes is vital because it gives buyers real options and stimulates transactions. As the Chief Economist at First American notes:

“Where new listings grow, sales flow.”

The data suggests a strong optimism for 2026. As more homeowners choose to list their properties, buyers will have more opportunities to purchase, moving the entire market one step closer to balance.

The 4 Quadrants of Normalization: Where Does Knoxville Stand?

First American analyzed 75 major metropolitan markets, comparing their October 2025 performance against their pre-pandemic averages (October 2018–2019). They divided these markets into four quadrants based on how close their new listings and sales volume were to “normal.”

The results for our local area are incredibly encouraging.

Knoxville is a “Pacesetter”

Knoxville, Tennessee, landed in the upper-right quadrant, designated as a Pacesetter.

What is a Pacesetter?
Pacesetters are markets that are closer to their pre-pandemic norms for both new listings and sales volume than the typical market.

Along with cities like Pittsburgh and Virginia Beach, Knoxville is leading the national return to normalized activity. This quadrant features markets that generally offer relative affordability compared to the rest of the country.

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers in Knoxville

This report cements what I have been saying for months: While things are slowing down compared to the peak frenzy, we are not crashing—we are normalizing.

  • For Sellers: The market is active, and sales are responding to the improved supply. You are entering a market that is functioning closer to historical health.
  • For Buyers: The increase in fresh listings means you have more choices. The “Pacesetter” status indicates that transactions are flowing, making it a great time to enter the market.

Summary

The data is clear: Knoxville is a leader in the housing recovery. We are seeing a healthy return to pre-pandemic levels of activity, which provides stability for everyone involved in a real estate transaction.

If you have questions about how this “Pacesetter” status affects your home value or your ability to buy in 2026, please don’t hesitate to reach out.

Troy Stavros
Cornerstone Realty Associates
Knoxville, TN

Knoxville Housing Market Update November 2025 | Prices Dropping & Inventory Up

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Are you wondering what’s happening in the Knoxville real estate market and across East Tennessee this November? As 2025 draws to a close, both buyers and sellers are facing a market that looks very different from the frenzied years of the recent past. Let’s dive into the latest housing market data for Knoxville and all of East Tennessee, so you can make informed decisions about your next move.

Knoxville and East Tennessee: Market Overview

The East Tennessee housing market and Knoxville’s real estate market are both cooling, but at different rates. Inventory is rising, homes are staying on the market longer, and buyers now have more negotiating power than at any time in recent years. If you’ve been waiting for the market to shift, now’s the time to pay close attention.

Key Similarities:

  • Inventory is up in both Knoxville and the surrounding region.
  • Homes are taking longer to sell.
  • Buyers have more room to negotiate.

Key Differences:

  • Knoxville’s market is cooling faster than the broader East Tennessee region.

Inventory & New Listings

Knoxville:

  • Inventory up 25% year-over-year
  • New listings down 8%
  • Homes are sitting longer before selling

East Tennessee (Regional):

  • Inventory up 15% year-over-year
  • New listings down 2%

This means more choices for buyers in Knoxville, but also indicates that homes aren’t moving as quickly as before.

Closed & Pending Sales

  • East Tennessee closed sales: Down just 0.3% (virtually flat)
  • Knoxville closed sales: Down 14%

However, pending sales (homes under contract) are up:

  • 18% regionally
  • 9% in Knoxville

This shows that buyer activity is returning, but buyers are more selective, especially in Knoxville.

Home Prices: Median & Average

Knoxville:

  • Median sales price: Down 6% to $385,000
  • Average sales price: Down nearly 3%

East Tennessee:

  • Median sales price: Down 3% to $365,000
  • Average sales price: Up 4% (luxury/high-end sales remain strong)

Takeaway: Knoxville is seeing a broader correction across all price points, while high-end properties in the region are still performing well.

Days on Market (DOM)

Knoxville:

  • Average DOM: Up 50% to 57 days
  • Median DOM: Up 83%

East Tennessee:

  • Average DOM: Up 27% to 71 days
  • Median DOM: Up 37%

Despite the increases, Knoxville homes still sell faster than regional homes in absolute terms—but the rate of change is much steeper in Knoxville.

County-Level Highlights

  • Roane County: Inventory up 28.4%, pending sales up 73.7%, median price down 8% ($287,000)
  • Knox County: Inventory up 21.9%, pending sales up 9%, median price down 2.99% ($390,000)
  • Anderson County: Inventory up 31.7%, pending sales up 50.9%, median price flat ($350,603)
  • Loudon County: Inventory up 11.8%, pending sales up 31.9%, median price up 8.78% ($570,000)
  • Sevier County: Inventory up 7.29%, pending sales down 4.93%, median price down 7.04% ($500,000)
  • Blount County: Inventory up 4.8%, pending sales up 3.4%, median price flat ($376,250)

Note: Some counties see big month-to-month swings due to smaller sample sizes and varying property types.

Weekly Trends: A Deeper Look

  • Median Sales Price: For the first time in five years, the weekly median in Knoxville is lower than the previous year.
  • Active Listings: Highest in six years, even above pre-pandemic levels.
  • Weeks of Supply: Highest since 2019 (16 weeks vs. 13 last year).
  • Homes Sold: Near the lowest point in six years.
  • New Listings: Highest for this week in six years.
  • Days on Market: Highest in six years (72 days).
  • Pending Sales: Second lowest in six years.
  • Sale-to-List Price Ratio: Lowest in six years, indicating more negotiation and price reductions.
  • Price Drops: Most in any of the past six years for this week.

Mortgage Rates and Market Opportunity

  • Fed interest rate: Dropped 0.25% in November, but mortgage rates remain at 6.32% for a 30-year loan.
  • If rates fall below 6%, expect more buyers to return to the market and possibly more sellers to list.

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

For Buyers:

  • More choices, more time, and more negotiating power.
  • This is the best opportunity in years to buy in Knoxville or East Tennessee.

For Sellers:

  • Price aggressively from day one.
  • Overpriced homes will sit—there’s no longer a “hot market” safety net.
  • Be prepared for more competition and negotiation.

Bottom Line

The Knoxville real estate market is normalizing after years of record growth and rapid sales. While there’s no “crash,” the market correction is real—especially in Knoxville, where inventory gains, price drops, and slower sales are more pronounced. The broader East Tennessee market is cooling but remains stable, with continued strength in luxury segments.

Whether you’re buying or selling, understanding your specific market is key.

If you have questions about your neighborhood, want to know your home’s value, or are thinking about buying in Knoxville or East Tennessee, reach out today. The right guidance can help you seize opportunities in this evolving market.

Ready to make your next move in East Tennessee? Contact Troy Stavros with Cornerstone Realty Associates for personalized advice and up-to-date market data.

Are Knoxville Home Prices Cooling? October 2025 Knoxville & East Tennessee Housing Market Update

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Are you wondering what’s really happening in the Knoxville and East Tennessee real estate market? The latest data for October 2025 reveals a turning point for both buyers and sellers, with significant changes in inventory, pricing, and market dynamics. Whether you’re thinking of buying, selling, or just keeping an eye on the local market, this comprehensive update breaks down the key trends you need to know.

Knoxville Housing Market: A Shift Toward Balance

The Knoxville single-family home market is experiencing a notable transition. Inventory levels have surged by an impressive 42.3% year-over-year, giving buyers far more choices than in October 2024. New listings are up 11.5%, and pending sales have climbed by 12.3%, indicating that demand remains active despite the influx of supply.

However, closed home sales dropped 5.9% compared to last year. This shift means that, while buyers are interested, the increased inventory isn’t being fully absorbed, signaling a clear move away from the intense seller’s market conditions of recent years.

Pricing Trends in Knoxville

  • Median sales price fell 5.9% year-over-year to $382,500, a significant decline.
  • Average sale price remained virtually flat at $497,005, up just 0.4%.
  • Median active list price dropped 2.3%, while the average list price increased 2.2%. This suggests that while some sellers are adjusting prices downward, higher-priced homes are staying on the market longer.
  • Average days on market jumped 48.5% to 49 days, and median days on market rose 43% to 20 days. Homes are taking longer to sell as buyers become more deliberate and selective.

Month-Over-Month Snapshot

Compared to September, the absorption rate in Knoxville ticked up slightly to 3.11 months (from 3.05). Both average and median days on market increased, reinforcing the trend of a cooling market. Despite these headwinds, pending sales rose from last month, showing there’s still underlying demand even as buyers take more time and exercise greater negotiating power.

Key Takeaway for Knoxville

The Knoxville real estate market is now much more balanced. Buyers have regained leverage, sellers face more competition, and price appreciation has clearly stalled. Sellers should prepare for longer marketing times and the need to price competitively to attract offers. Buyers, on the other hand, can expect a greater selection of homes and improved negotiating conditions compared to the overheated market of a year ago.

East Tennessee Housing Market: Signs of Normalization

Looking beyond Knoxville, the East Tennessee single-family housing market is also showing clear signs of normalization in October 2025.

  • Inventory levels rose sharply, up more than 22% from last year, giving buyers more options and easing some of the competitive pressure.
  • Home sales were up just over 3% year-over-year, while pending sales surged 20.8%, signaling strong momentum heading into the winter months.
  • New listings climbed 12%, and while sellers continue to price homes optimistically (list prices up 2–3%), actual sales prices showed stability.
    • Median sales price dipped just 0.54% to $368,000
    • Average sale prices remained flat
  • Absorption rate now sits at 4.78 months, up from 4.06 a year ago, reflecting a market moving toward balance.
  • Average days on market rose to 64, a 36% increase from last year, though marketing times improved slightly compared to September.

County-Level Highlights

  • Roane County: Inventory up 41.7%, pending sales up 32.2%, median price up 3.7% to $350,000.
  • Knox County: Inventory up 37.1%, pending sales up 12.7%, median price down 4.74% to $381,000.
  • Anderson County: Inventory up 34.6%, pending sales up 21%, median price down 1.34% to $332,000.
  • Loudon County: Inventory up 17.1%, pending sales up 11%, median price down 12.52% to $544,500.
  • Sevier County: Inventory up 10.94%, pending sales down 11.41%, median price up 25% to $575,000.
  • Blount County: Inventory up 10.5%, pending sales up 13%, median price down 2.46% to $390,075.

Four out of six counties saw median prices lower than a year ago, showing that while some areas still see appreciation, price growth is largely stalled or even negative across much of the region.

Market Charts: Knoxville Metro at a Glance

  • Active listings are at their highest in six years, surpassing even pre-pandemic levels.
  • Weeks of supply have jumped to 17, up from 11 in 2019, showing a significant increase in inventory relative to demand.
  • 2025 saw the lowest number of homes sold for this point in the year in the past seven years, reflecting slowing demand.
  • New listings are the second highest in seven years, further adding to supply.
  • Days on market are at their highest in six years, and pending sales are at their second lowest.
  • Sale-to-list price ratio is at 98.1%, tied with 2019 and 2024, indicating more negotiation and less bidding above asking price.
  • Price drops are at their highest in the past six years, reflecting increased pressure on sellers to adjust pricing.

Why Is This Happening?

The market is still digesting the effects of the pandemic boom. Many buyers who would have purchased homes in 2025 instead bought earlier, thanks to historically low interest rates and a flexible work-from-home environment. This “pull forward” in demand has resulted in slower sales today, combined with a return to more normal inventory levels.

What’s Next for Knoxville Real Estate?

Despite the current moderation, Knoxville remains a market to watch. According to Zillow, the city ranks number four among the top 15 U.S. metros expected to see the largest home price increases between September 2025 and September 2026, with a forecasted 5% gain. Move Buddha’s Moving Forecast also names Knoxville as the most popular city to move to in 2026, with a high in-to-out migration ratio.

Final Thoughts

The October 2025 Knoxville and East Tennessee housing market update clearly shows a shift toward balance. Inventory is up, prices are moderating, and homes are taking longer to sell. Buyers now have more leverage and negotiating power, while sellers must adjust expectations and price competitively to succeed in this new environment.

If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home in Knoxville or East Tennessee, now is the time to work with a knowledgeable real estate professional who can help you navigate these changing market conditions.

For more updates or to get advice tailored to your situation, don’t hesitate to reach out!

Ready to make your next move in Knoxville or East Tennessee? Contact us today for personalized guidance and market insights.

East Tennessee & Knoxville Housing Market Update SEPTEMBER 2025: Prices, Trends, and Buyer-Seller Insights

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Are you a homeowner, buyer, or seller looking to understand the latest trends in the East Tennessee and Knoxville housing market? As we approach the end of 2025, market conditions have shifted, interest rates are making waves, and submarkets like Farragut, Lenoir City, and Tellico Village are showing unique patterns. Here’s everything you need to know to navigate the Knoxville real estate market this fall.

Knoxville Housing Market 2025: Cooling but Not Crashing

After years of rapid price growth and frenzied bidding, the Knoxville housing market in 2025 is undergoing a noticeable transformation. Inventory has surged by over a third compared to last year, and homes are staying on the market longer—almost double the days compared to 2024. Sales volume is down nearly 8% year-over-year, and the median home price is now essentially flat, even dipping slightly in some neighborhoods.

Key Takeaway for Home Sellers:
Knoxville sellers must be strategic with pricing and flexible on concessions, as buyers have more options and are no longer rushing to make offers.

East Tennessee Real Estate: A More Resilient Picture

While Knoxville proper is feeling the pinch, East Tennessee’s real estate market as a whole remains resilient. Median prices are up 2-3% year-over-year, and pending sales have benefited from a temporary dip in mortgage rates this fall. Outlying areas such as Lenoir City, Loudon County, and Roane County are seeing steady or even rising demand, absorbing much of the new inventory and maintaining price growth.

Key Takeaway for Buyers:
If you’re priced out of Knoxville, expanding your search to the broader East Tennessee market—especially growing towns and counties—can offer better value and more affordable monthly payments.

Why Outlying Areas Are Booming: Affordability Shifts Demand

One of the biggest trends of 2025 is that outlying communities are capturing buyers who might otherwise have purchased in Knoxville. As the city’s median price outpaces regional averages, many buyers are looking to suburbs and nearby towns for better deals.

  • Farragut: With its top-rated schools and amenities, Farragut remains in demand. However, rising prices and inventory mean homes are staying on the market longer despite a 30% jump in pending sales after the recent rate drop.
  • Lenoir City: This value-driven hotspot is attracting buyers with newer homes and reasonable commutes to Knoxville. Inventory is up, but homes are selling quickly, making for a competitive market.
  • Tellico Village: Known for its active-adult community and lakefront living, Tellico Village is experiencing a surge in inventory and a dip in median sale price, giving buyers more choices and negotiating power—especially for homes needing updates.

Key Takeaway for Investors:
Strong demand in Lenoir City and Farragut, as well as lifestyle-driven buyers in Tellico Village, make these submarkets worth watching for potential appreciation and rental opportunities.

The Role of Mortgage Interest Rates

Mortgage rates have been the wild card in the Knoxville and East Tennessee housing market. Earlier this fall, rates dipped briefly to just over 6%, sparking a surge in pending sales. However, any further increases could dampen both buyer demand and price growth, particularly in Knoxville, where affordability is stretched.

Key Takeaway for Buyers & Sellers:
Watch interest rates closely—lower rates could mean more competition and firmer prices, while higher rates might extend days on market and open the door to negotiation.

Knoxville Real Estate Forecast Through 2026

Looking ahead, the consensus among local experts is that the Knoxville real estate market will continue to normalize. Expect prices to remain flat or post only modest gains, with some neighborhoods possibly seeing slight declines. The broader East Tennessee market, however, is expected to show more resilience, especially in growth corridors and popular commuter towns.

Tips for Success:

  • Buyers: Expand your search radius to include outlying areas for more options and better deals.
  • Sellers: Be realistic about pricing, and consider offering concessions or updates to attract buyers.
  • Homeowners: If you’re not in a rush to move, waiting for rates to drop could bring more favorable selling conditions.

Final Thoughts: Navigating the East Tennessee & Knoxville Housing Market

Whether you’re buying, selling, or simply monitoring property values, staying informed about local trends is essential in a shifting market. Knoxville is correcting faster than the region, but East Tennessee remains a strong bet for homeowners and investors. Keep an eye on interest rates and be ready to act quickly when the right opportunity arises.

Ready to make your move?
For the latest Knoxville and East Tennessee market updates, tips for home buyers and sellers, and expert real estate advice, subscribe to our newsletter or contact us today!

East Tennessee housing market September 2025
Knoxville housing market September 2025
East Tennessee counties housing market September 2025
Farragut TN housing market September 2025
Lenoir City TN housing market September 2025
Tellico Village housing market September 2025

East Tennessee & Knoxville Housing Market Update – August 2025

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Are you curious about the current real estate trends in Knoxville and East Tennessee? Whether you’re considering buying, selling, or investing, understanding the latest market shifts is essential for making the right move. Here’s a comprehensive, data-driven look at the August 2025 housing market update for East Tennessee and Knoxville, including prices, inventory, and expert insights.

East Tennessee & Knoxville Single-Family Housing Market Report – August 2025

Economic & Market Context (Applies to Both Markets)

  • Mortgage rates have dropped to the low 6% range (~6.29%), improving affordability and monthly payments for buyers.
  • Labor market data is a growing concern: National job growth over the past year was revised sharply lower, with only 22,000 jobs added in August and significant downward revisions in sectors like leisure, hospitality, retail, and business services.
  • Buyer confidence is mixed—improved by rate relief but tempered by employment insecurity.
  • Inventory is elevated across markets, providing buyers with more choices and reducing urgency.
  • Days on market and absorption rates are increasing, signaling a slower pace of sales and movement toward a more balanced or slightly buyer-leaning market.
  • Negotiability is up: Sale-to-list ratios are lower, and price reductions/concessions are more common.
  • Lending standards may tighten further due to economic uncertainty, limiting access for marginal buyers.

Supply, Demand & Pricing Dynamics (Shared Trends)

  • Active inventory is high vs. last year, keeping upward pressure off prices and giving buyers leverage.
  • New listings remain steady, showing seller engagement, but not enough to create excess supply.
  • Median sale prices are flat to modestly up, while average sale prices have been buoyed by upper-tier transactions.
  • Absorption rates are trending higher YoY, indicating more choices and slower turnover.
  • Days on market for sold listings have increased substantially, especially for homes not priced to current conditions.
  • Sellers must be realistic on pricing and incentives; buyers can negotiate more assertively, especially on stale listings.

Knoxville vs. East Tennessee: Key Differences & Local Nuance

1. Inventory, Absorption & Market Speed

  • Knoxville
    • Absorption rate: 2.94 months (Aug 2025), up 34% YoY—still somewhat seller-leaning but moving toward balance.
    • Active listings: ~1,600, with steady but not excessive new supply.
    • Average Days on Market: 46 (+35% YoY); Median DOM: 22 (+83% YoY).
    • Market is slightly faster than the broader East Tennessee region (which has a 4.82 month absorption rate and longer DOM), but both are slowing.
  • East Tennessee (Region-Wide)
    • Absorption rate: 4.82 months (Aug 2025), up 27% YoY—close to balanced, potentially tipping buyer-friendly if demand softens.
    • Average DOM: 63 (+37% YoY); Median DOM: 29 (+45% YoY).
    • More pronounced inventory build and slower pace overall vs. Knoxville.

2. Pricing Trends

  • Knoxville
    • Median list price: $415,000 (down 7.4% YoY).
    • Average sale price: $512,654 (up 10.5% YoY).
    • Median sale price: $390,888 (up 1.5% YoY).
    • Pricing reflects a sharper correction in list prices, with average sale price buoyed by upper-tier deals, but most sellers see little real appreciation.
  • East Tennessee
    • Median list price: $440,000 (nearly flat YoY).
    • Average sale price: $471,398 (up 6.8% YoY).
    • Median sale price: $376,200 (up 3.1% YoY).
    • List prices haven’t corrected as much as Knoxville, but the pattern of average prices outpacing median is similar, reflecting strength at the top of the market.

3. Negotiation & Sale-to-List Ratios

  • Knoxville
    • Sale-to-list ratios: 95–97% (lower than last year), with frequent discounts needed to close.
    • Median sale prices are often below median list prices, showing persistent buyer leverage.
  • East Tennessee
    • Sale-to-list price ratio: ~95%, also down YoY.
    • Negotiability is common across the region; sellers of aging inventory must stay flexible.

4. Market Segmentation & Buyer Behavior

  • Knoxville
    • Entry-level and mid-market segments ($250k–$400k): Most sensitive to job market fears; these buyers benefit from rate relief but are often sidelined by economic uncertainty.
    • Upper-tier sales ($400k+): Drive the average price higher, but volume is limited.
    • Homes priced right and move-in ready move fastest; stale inventory is slow to clear.
  • East Tennessee
    • Similar segmentation: Entry and mid-market buyers are most impacted by job and lending trends.
    • Upper-tier strength is evident but less concentrated than in Knoxville.
    • Market is generally a bit slower and more diverse across submarkets.

5. Risks & Outliers

  • Knoxville
    • List price declines are more pronounced than region-wide, suggesting sellers are adjusting expectations faster, or a higher share of affordable product is coming to market.
    • Market is less exposed to deep softening than some rural/outlying counties, thanks to more diversified local demand.
  • East Tennessee
    • Outlying areas may see greater inventory buildup and longer marketing times, especially if job losses are concentrated in specific towns or industries.
    • Region is somewhat more vulnerable to further economic shocks, particularly outside major metros like Knoxville.

Strategic Guidance for Both Markets

For Buyers

  • Assess job security and financial stability first—don’t overextend.
  • Negotiate confidently on older or price-reduced listings.
  • Take advantage of lower rates, but ensure full pre-approval and keep contingencies in place.

For Sellers

  • Price to current market—not to last year’s peak.
  • Expect longer marketing times and be ready for strategic concessions (rate buydowns, closing credits).
  • Invest in property condition and presentation to stand out.

For Investors

  • Underwrite with conservative rent and absorption projections.
  • Favor stable neighborhoods and properties with strong rental demand.
  • Prepare for higher vacancies or longer lease-up periods.

Outlook: What to Watch Through Year-End 2025

  • Pending sales and mortgage applications: Early signals for shifts in demand.
  • Local job market trends: Especially important in entry-level and service sectors.
  • Inventory build and price reductions: Especially if list prices keep falling in Knoxville.
  • Market speed: Any further rise in DOM or absorption signals softening.

Conclusion

Both Knoxville and the broader East Tennessee region are experiencing a market in transition, balancing improved affordability against weaker labor market data and rising inventory.

  • Knoxville is adjusting more quickly on price and remains a touch more resilient due to diverse demand, but is not immune to broader economic headwinds.
  • East Tennessee as a whole is trending toward a balanced or slightly buyer-leaning market, with greater risk of softening in less urban submarkets.
  • Success for buyers, sellers, and investors in either market hinges on realism, flexibility, and close attention to both local and macroeconomic trends as the remainder of 2025 unfolds.

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