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East Tennessee Real Estate: A Dynamic Housing Market in 2023 and Beyond – NOVEMBER 2023 UPDATE

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Knoxville Real Estate Trends: A Thriving Market in East Tennessee

East Tennessee’s real estate market, particularly in Knoxville, has demonstrated remarkable resilience and growth in recent times. In Q3 2023, Knoxville’s home price growth ranked an impressive No. 4 among the top 100 metro areas. This surge reflects a significant 11.6% increase from the previous year, as reported by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). Such robust growth showcases Knoxville’s burgeoning appeal in the East Tennessee real estate landscape.

Anticipating 2024: Knoxville’s Housing Market Projections

A recent survey from Fannie Mae shows that 23% of consumers think prices will fall over the next 12 months. That’s nearly one in four people who are dealing with that fear – maybe you’re one of them. To help ease that concern, here’s what the experts say will happen with home prices not just next year, but over the next five years. Looking forward, 2024 holds a blend of challenges and opportunities for Knoxville real estate. While Realtor.com’s 2024 forecast predicts a 5.9% dip in home sales, it concurrently anticipates a promising 7.2% rise in home prices. These projections, coupled with the East Tennessee REALTORS®’ forthcoming annual forecast, paint a picture of a market adjusting to evolving economic conditions.

Apartment Rent Growth and Student Housing Market

The rental market in Knoxville is also witnessing notable trends. October saw a continuation of accelerated apartment rent growth, with a 4.14% year-over-year increase across the Knoxville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), significantly outpacing the national average. Additionally, the University of Tennessee’s student housing market ranked No. 11 nationally for rent growth in Fall 2023, marking a substantial 15.9% increase from the previous school year.

Knoxville’s Housing Market: Speed and Pricing

In the fast-paced Knoxville market, homes are selling swiftly. In October half of the homes sold were under contract in 12 days or less, indicating a slight fluctuation from previous periods. Remarkably, 26% of homes sold for more than the asking price, underscoring Knoxville’s competitive real estate environment.

Housing Market Dynamics and Inventory Trends

Despite challenges like limited inventory and affordability, the East Tennessee housing market is adapting. November witnessed a seasonal rise in housing inventory, with an 8.7% year-over-year increase in active listings across the region. This trend indicates a gradually improving market landscape as we move into 2024.

Knoxville’s Labor Market and Economic Factors

The economic backdrop of Knoxville’s real estate market remains strong, despite broader uncertainties. Knoxville’s labor market, as per the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), continues to outperform, ranking among the top U.S. metros for job growth. RealPage Analytics reports a 3.7% increase in Knoxville’s employment base in the year ending October 2023, well above the metro’s long-term average.

Mortgage Rates and Economic Outlook

The mortgage landscape has seen dramatic shifts, we saw rates over 8% earlier in the year and as of today, according to Mortgage News Daily, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is at 7.02% (UPDATE! One day later we are down to 6.62%!). This rate, while higher than last year’s average, reflects recent market adjustments. The Federal Reserve’s decision not to pursue another rate hike further shapes a cautiously optimistic economic outlook for the National, Knoxville and East Tennessee real estate markets. Many experts believe the FED will cut rates in 2024 leading to mortgage interest rates dropping as well. If that does happen, and you are a homebuyer, there is a Catch 22. Should interest rates fall, inventory will fall along with it, and competition will rise. That may seem counterintuitive but here is what the data shows. (show graphic). When looking at the data since 2016, you can clearly see that when we are in an environment of rates falling, inventory falls and vice verse. Therefore lower rates will stimulate increased demand from buyers leading to more competition, and lower supply… and what does the law of supply and demand tell us about what low supply and high demand will do to home prices? That’s right, it will make them rise. So if that’s the case, is it better to wait until that happens to buy a home, or buy now when competition is lower and there is more inventory available to choose from? We remember what it was like a few years ago when competition was fierce. I don’t think anyone wants that again, but rates dropping could bring it back.

Comment below or contact me, Troy Stavros, directly with questions or if I can help in any way. Call or text 865-999-0925.

How Much Should I Offer on a House in Knoxville in 2021?

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For generations, the homebuying process never really changed. The seller would try to estimate the market value of the home and tack on a little extra to give themselves some negotiating room. That figure would become the listing price of the house. Buyers would then try to determine how much less than the full price they could offer and still get the home. The asking price was generally the ceiling of the negotiation. The actual sales price would almost always be somewhat lower than the list price. It was unthinkable to pay more than what the seller was asking.

Today is different.

The record-low supply of homes for sale in Knoxville coupled with very strong buyer demand is leading to a rise in bidding wars on most homes. Because of this, homes today often sell for more than the list price. In some cases, they sell for a lot more.

According to the Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends report just released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), 45% of buyers paid full price or more.

You may need to change the way you look at the asking price of a home.

In this market, you likely can’t shop for a home with the old-school mentality of refusing to pay full price or more for a house.

Because of the shortage of inventory of houses for sale in Knoxville, many homes are actually being offered in an auction-like atmosphere in which the highest bidder wins the home. In an actual auction, the seller of an item agrees to take the highest bid, and many sellers set a reserve price on the item they’re selling. A reserve price is the minimum amount a seller will accept as the winning bid.

When navigating the competitive Knoxville housing market, think of the list price of the house as the reserve price at an auction. It’s the minimum the seller will accept in many cases. Today, the asking price is often becoming the floor of the negotiation rather than the ceiling. Therefore, if you really love a home in Knoxville, know that it may ultimately sell for more than the sellers are asking. So, as you’re navigating the homebuying process, make sure you know your budget, know what you can afford, and work with a trusted advisor who can help you make all the right moves as you buy a home.

Bottom Line

Someone who’s more familiar with the housing market of the past than that of today may think offering more for a home than the listing price is foolish. However, frequent and competitive bidding wars are creating an auction-like atmosphere in many real estate transactions. Let’s connect so you have the best advice on how to make a competitive offer on a home in our local market.

Call/Text me, Troy Stavros with CornerStone Realty Associates at 865-999-0925. My team and I look forward to serving you!

Knoxville Real Estate Market Update July 2014

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The Knoxville real estate market is chugging along on a pretty steady pace, while other parts of the country seem to be slowing down.

NATIONAL HOME PRICES:

  • June 2014 to July 2014 – DOWN 3.1%
  • July 2013 to July 2014 – DOWN 6.8%

KNOXVILLE HOME PRICES:

  • June 2014 to July 2014 – UP 4.6%
  • July 2013 to July 2014 – UP 7.8%

With school starting back up, we can expect an increase in average days on the market.  This is already being witnessed as average days on the market in Knoxville went from 96 days in June to 102 days in July, but this is still much better than July of 2013 when average days on the market in Knoxville was 193 days.

One of the main reasons for the rising prices and reduced days on the market for Knoxville real estate is lower inventory levels.  Here are some comparisons to give you a picture of the inventory of Knoxville homes for sale:

KNOXVILLE REAL ESTATE INVENTORY LEVELS

July 2013 to July 2014 – DOWN 10.5%

YTD 2013 to YTD 2014 – DOWN 6.1%

Some of the statistics vary widely depending on what price range you are in when selling or buying Knoxville real estate.  This chart will break it down (don’t hesitate to contact me with any questions you have about the numbers above or in the chart below).

Knoxville Real Estate Stats July 2014

Now the big question is what does this information mean for you as someone looking to sell your home in Knoxville or buy a home in Knoxville?  As a seller, low inventory levels mean that this is a great time to put your home on the market, as there is less competition.  As a buyer, buying a home in a low inventory home market means, you need to be less aggressive with your offers as there is increased competition in the marketplace.  Making low offers or hesitating too long in deciding to make an offer will most likely cause you to lose out on desirable homes, as they will be snapped up by competing buyers.

Thinking about selling and wondering how much your Knoxville home might be worth?  CLICK HERE for an instant estimate.

For more information or to discuss your personal goals in selling or buying a home in Knoxville, contact me, Troy Stavros with Gables & Gates, REALTORS today.