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East Tennessee and Knoxville Housing Market Trends: A Comprehensive May 2024 Analysis

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Are you looking to buy or sell real estate in East Tennessee or Knoxville? Understanding the latest market trends can help you make informed decisions. Here’s a detailed look at the current state of the housing market in these regions as of May 2024.

East Tennessee Market Overview

Home Sales and Inventory:

  • Home sales decreased by 1% compared to last year, marking a shift in the market.
  • However, pending sales rose by 10.1%, indicating strong buyer interest.
  • Inventory surged by 42.8%, providing more options for buyers.

Prices and Absorption Rates:

  • The median sales price increased by 8.96%, reaching $365,000.
  • The average price per square foot stands at $221.
  • The absorption rate climbed to 3.14 months, suggesting a balanced market with increased inventory and slightly reduced demand due to high interest rates.

Key Trends:

  • The most active price range for sales was $300,000 to $350,000.
  • The $350,000 to $400,000 range saw the most new listings and pending sales.
  • Days on market are decreasing, reflecting quicker sales.

Knoxville Market Insights

Sales and Inventory:

  • Home sales in Knoxville rose by 7.8% from last year.
  • Inventory increased by a substantial 55.1%, offering more choices for buyers.
  • New listings were up by 12.2%, further expanding the market.

Pricing Dynamics:

  • The median sales price saw a modest rise of 2.04%, reaching $397,950.
  • The average price per square foot is $227.
  • The absorption rate increased to 1.64 months, still indicating a seller’s market.

Significant Segments:

  • The $300,000 to $350,000 price point had the highest number of sales.
  • The $350,000 to $400,000 range dominated pending sales and new listings.
  • The market remains competitive, especially in the lower to mid-range price segments.

County-by-County Breakdown

Roane County:

  • Inventory up by 92.7%, pending sales stable.
  • Median sales price up by 11.67%, at $334,900.

Knox County:

  • Inventory up by 58.6%, pending sales up by 8.3%.
  • Median sales price up by 1.56%, at $389,450.

Anderson County:

  • Inventory up by 55.8%, pending sales up by 2.4%.
  • Median sales price up by 13.98%, at $318,000.

Loudon County:

  • Inventory up by 46%, pending sales down by 6.9%.
  • Median sales price up by 15.26%, at $532,500.

Sevier County:

  • Inventory up by 36.38%, pending sales down by 12.07%.
  • Median sales price up by 8.9%, at $590,000.

Blount County:

  • Inventory up by 61%, pending sales up by 11.2%.
  • Median sales price down by 5.07%, at $370,000.

Market Action and Affordability

The market action index has been trending down, indicating more supply and slightly reduced demand due to higher interest rates. Despite this, the market remains a seller’s market, especially in Knoxville where inventory is still below pre-pandemic levels.

Affordability Challenges:

  • High mortgage rates (over 7%) are affecting affordability.
  • Only 15% of homes are affordable for those earning the median household income of $62,911.
  • Interest rates’ movements will significantly impact market dynamics.

Future Outlook:

  • Low mortgage rates are unlikely in 2024 due to inflation.
  • Significant drops in home prices are not expected in the near term.
  • Lot availability and new construction remain challenges, contributing to higher home prices.

Conclusion

Whether you’re buying or selling, understanding these market trends is crucial. More inventory means more choices for buyers, while still low overall inventory keeps the market favorable for sellers. Stay informed, consult with your real estate agent, and keep an eye on interest rates to make the best decisions in the current East Tennessee and Knoxville housing markets.

For personalized advice and insights, don’t hesitate to reach out to Troy Stavros with Cornerstone Realty Associates. Happy house hunting!

East Tennessee Real Estate: A Dynamic Housing Market in 2023 and Beyond – NOVEMBER 2023 UPDATE

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Knoxville Real Estate Trends: A Thriving Market in East Tennessee

East Tennessee’s real estate market, particularly in Knoxville, has demonstrated remarkable resilience and growth in recent times. In Q3 2023, Knoxville’s home price growth ranked an impressive No. 4 among the top 100 metro areas. This surge reflects a significant 11.6% increase from the previous year, as reported by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). Such robust growth showcases Knoxville’s burgeoning appeal in the East Tennessee real estate landscape.

Anticipating 2024: Knoxville’s Housing Market Projections

A recent survey from Fannie Mae shows that 23% of consumers think prices will fall over the next 12 months. That’s nearly one in four people who are dealing with that fear – maybe you’re one of them. To help ease that concern, here’s what the experts say will happen with home prices not just next year, but over the next five years. Looking forward, 2024 holds a blend of challenges and opportunities for Knoxville real estate. While Realtor.com’s 2024 forecast predicts a 5.9% dip in home sales, it concurrently anticipates a promising 7.2% rise in home prices. These projections, coupled with the East Tennessee REALTORS®’ forthcoming annual forecast, paint a picture of a market adjusting to evolving economic conditions.

Apartment Rent Growth and Student Housing Market

The rental market in Knoxville is also witnessing notable trends. October saw a continuation of accelerated apartment rent growth, with a 4.14% year-over-year increase across the Knoxville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), significantly outpacing the national average. Additionally, the University of Tennessee’s student housing market ranked No. 11 nationally for rent growth in Fall 2023, marking a substantial 15.9% increase from the previous school year.

Knoxville’s Housing Market: Speed and Pricing

In the fast-paced Knoxville market, homes are selling swiftly. In October half of the homes sold were under contract in 12 days or less, indicating a slight fluctuation from previous periods. Remarkably, 26% of homes sold for more than the asking price, underscoring Knoxville’s competitive real estate environment.

Housing Market Dynamics and Inventory Trends

Despite challenges like limited inventory and affordability, the East Tennessee housing market is adapting. November witnessed a seasonal rise in housing inventory, with an 8.7% year-over-year increase in active listings across the region. This trend indicates a gradually improving market landscape as we move into 2024.

Knoxville’s Labor Market and Economic Factors

The economic backdrop of Knoxville’s real estate market remains strong, despite broader uncertainties. Knoxville’s labor market, as per the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), continues to outperform, ranking among the top U.S. metros for job growth. RealPage Analytics reports a 3.7% increase in Knoxville’s employment base in the year ending October 2023, well above the metro’s long-term average.

Mortgage Rates and Economic Outlook

The mortgage landscape has seen dramatic shifts, we saw rates over 8% earlier in the year and as of today, according to Mortgage News Daily, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is at 7.02% (UPDATE! One day later we are down to 6.62%!). This rate, while higher than last year’s average, reflects recent market adjustments. The Federal Reserve’s decision not to pursue another rate hike further shapes a cautiously optimistic economic outlook for the National, Knoxville and East Tennessee real estate markets. Many experts believe the FED will cut rates in 2024 leading to mortgage interest rates dropping as well. If that does happen, and you are a homebuyer, there is a Catch 22. Should interest rates fall, inventory will fall along with it, and competition will rise. That may seem counterintuitive but here is what the data shows. (show graphic). When looking at the data since 2016, you can clearly see that when we are in an environment of rates falling, inventory falls and vice verse. Therefore lower rates will stimulate increased demand from buyers leading to more competition, and lower supply… and what does the law of supply and demand tell us about what low supply and high demand will do to home prices? That’s right, it will make them rise. So if that’s the case, is it better to wait until that happens to buy a home, or buy now when competition is lower and there is more inventory available to choose from? We remember what it was like a few years ago when competition was fierce. I don’t think anyone wants that again, but rates dropping could bring it back.

Comment below or contact me, Troy Stavros, directly with questions or if I can help in any way. Call or text 865-999-0925.

OCTOBER 2023 East Tennessee & Knoxville Real Estate Update: Key Market Trends for Buyers & Sellers

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The Knoxville real estate market continues to shine in the national spotlight, securing a formidable second place in the FHFA’s ranking of the top 100 metros for median appraised value growth of single-family homes in Q2 2023. This impressive 9.1% increase from the previous year not only reflects the area’s robust market dynamics but also significantly surpasses the national median, which saw a slight decline.

In a notable achievement, the Knoxville metro area climbed to the 18th spot in the prestigious Wall Street Journal/Realtor.com Emerging Housing Markets Index for Fall 2023. This index, revered for identifying top-performing markets, underscores Knoxville’s appeal with its low living costs and flourishing economy.

The rental landscape in Knoxville is also evolving. After a remarkable near-20% growth in apartment rents in Q3 2022, the pace has moderated, with a 4.5% year-over-year increase in Q3 2023. This trend is in sharp contrast to the national average, which saw a mere 0.04% increase, highlighting Knoxville’s unique rental market trajectory.

Knox County emerges as a tax haven, boasting one of the lowest effective property tax rates in the U.S. at 0.32% in 2022, as per Attom Data’s analysis. This factor, among others, continues to attract homeowners and investors alike.

Despite the market’s overall vitality, approximately a quarter of homes still sold above asking price, a slight decrease from the previous month. Remarkably, over 10% of these sales were at least $10,000 over the listed price, indicating strong buyer interest and competition.

While 2023 has seen a general slowdown in East Tennessee’s housing market, it hasn’t dampened the region’s growth, especially when compared to cities like Nashville and Memphis, which experienced declines in home values.

However, the Knoxville MSA witnessed a significant 27% drop in purchase appraisals from the previous year in Q2 2023, reflecting the wider impact of increasing mortgage rates and limited inventory on buyer activity.

Looking forward, East Tennessee faces a challenging environment with soaring mortgage rates, now at their highest since the early 2000s. The average monthly payment for a median-priced new listing has surged to $2,400, a 22% increase from last year. Despite this, the tight supply continues to propel home prices upward, even as sales volumes decline.

With mortgage rates hovering around 7.5% and buyer expectations set around 5.5%, the market is at a critical juncture. This disconnect, rooted in decades of historically lower rates, shapes current perceptions of home buying feasibility.

Interestingly, the current mortgage rates, while higher than recent averages, are still below the long-term historical average of 7.7% since 1970. This context is vital for understanding the evolving dynamics of homebuyer attitudes and the enduring appeal of homeownership.

As for today’s mortgage landscape, rates have slightly decreased to 7.40% from over 8% last month. This fluctuation continues to influence buyer decisions and market trends.

In a reassuring sign for the Knoxville area, Auction.com’s analysis predicts a low risk of home price correction. This prediction, based on foreclosure auction data, indicates a significant reduction in foreclosure sales volume compared to 2019 levels.

The Knoxville real estate market, reshaped by the pandemic, has witnessed shifts not just in home prices, but also in inventory, population, and median income, further cementing its position as a dynamic and evolving market.

For more updates and insights into the East Tennessee and Knoxville real estate markets, stay tuned and subscribe to the YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@KnoxvilleTN.

Have questions or need guidance buying or selling real estate in the Knoxville TN or anywhere in East Tennessee? Contact Troy Stavros at 865-999-0925 today and let’s start a conversation.