East Tennessee Housing Market Report September 2026 | Knox, Blount, Farragut, Tellico Village & More

TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 — Introduction: Why the Headlines Are Misleading 2:52 — Knox County Housing Market August 2026 5:21 — Knox County Luxury Market Update 6:57 — Farragut Housing Market August 2026 9:19 — Farragut Luxury Market Update 10:46 — Blount County Housing Market August 2026 13:40 — Loudon County Housing Market August 2026 17:22 — Lenoir City Housing Market August 2026 20:03 — Tellico Village Housing Market August 2026 26:10 — Anderson County Housing Market August 2026 29:53 — Roane County Housing Market August 2026 33:36 — Sevier County Housing Market August 2026 37:10 — Regional Absorption Rate Comparison 39:41 — Regional Median Price Rankings 41:20 — Pending Sales: The Forward Indicator 42:52 — Mortgage Rates, the Fed & the Iran Conflict 45:44 — Inflation: Two Stories in One Number 53:10 — The Economy & Consumer Confidence 57:49 — Should You Wait for Rates to Drop? 1:00:03 — 5 Trends to Watch Q4 2026 1:02:17 — Bottom Line for Sellers 1:03:10 — Bottom Line for Buyers

East Tennessee Housing Market Report: August 2026 Data Analysis

By Troy Stavros | CornerStone Realty Associates | Published September 2026

The August MLS data is in, and this month’s story takes some explaining — because the headline numbers and what’s actually happening underneath them are telling two very different stories. Closed sales fell compared to last year in 8 of the 9 markets I track, with drops ranging from 4% to 20%. If you stopped reading right there, you’d think the market was slowing down. But the real story is the exact opposite.

Pending sales — homes that are under contract and heading toward closing — jumped in 8 of 9 markets. Knox County pending rose nearly 12%. Blount County jumped 20%. Loudon County climbed almost 23%. Roane County posted a 23% gain. And Tellico Village? Pending sales shot up 71% compared to last year.

That gap between fewer completed sales and a surge in new contracts tells you this market isn’t cooling off — it’s loading up. The fall pipeline across East Tennessee is the strongest we’ve seen all year, and the supply conditions supporting it have only gotten tighter.

When I look at how fast homes are selling relative to what’s available — what’s called the absorption rate, basically how many months it would take to sell every home on the market if nothing new were listed — 6 of my 8 core markets (excluding Sevier County) got tighter than a year ago. The only two that loosened, Knox County and Anderson County, did so by such small amounts it barely registers. And the market that keeps producing the most dramatic turnaround story in the region — Tellico Village — dropped below 3.1 months of supply for the first time since I’ve been tracking it. A year ago, that same market sat at 5.58 months. That’s a 45% compression in twelve months, and it has completely changed the competitive dynamics for buyers and sellers in that community.

Meanwhile, Sevier County’s median sale price fell more than 10% year over year as new listings surged 53% — the clearest sign yet that owners of former short-term rentals are selling in volume and it’s actively pushing prices down.

Let’s get into each market.

Knox County Housing Market — August 2026

Knox County’s August brought 619 closed sales, a 17% decline from the 746 closings posted last August. On the surface, that’s a noticeable pullback. But step back and look at the bigger picture. So far this year, Knox County has recorded 5,298 closings — still a 4% increase over last year’s pace. And the number that matters more going forward? Pending sales hit 693 in August, up 11.6% from a year ago. Year-to-date pending sales stand at 5,630, up 7.2% over 2025. The pipeline is healthy and building steam heading into fall.

The median sale price came in at $400,500, up 2.7% from $390,000 a year ago. So far this year, the median sits at $399,900 versus $400,000 last year — basically flat. That continues the theme of modest, sustainable price growth with no signs of overheating. Homes are appreciating at a pace that keeps the market accessible without creating the kind of runaway pricing that should worry anyone.

The absorption rate ticked to 3.02 months — the only meaningful loosening among the core markets — though at just a hair above last August’s 3.00, it’s practically unchanged. Active listings rose 5.7% to 1,949 homes, and new listings increased 6.7%. That’s healthy. More inventory coming to market gives buyers slightly more to choose from, while conditions still clearly tilt in sellers’ favor.

Homes are selling at a median of 17 days on market, down from 21 days a year ago — a 19% improvement despite the inventory increase. Sellers are getting 96.2% of their original asking price on average, and once offers come in, the final sale-to-list ratio of 98.4% tells you buyers are landing very close to what sellers are asking.

Knox County Luxury Market Update: The upper end of Knox County continues its breakout year. So far in 2026, the $700K–$750K price range has surged 48% in sales volume (151 sales versus 102). The $850K–$900K range is up 55.6% (84 versus 54). The $900K–$950K bracket gained 25%. And the $1M–$1.1M range is up nearly 38%. The depth of activity in these higher price ranges is historically unusual for Knox County and points to an ongoing shift in the mix of what’s selling.

Knox County Forecast: The year-to-date closings pace of 5,298 through August, combined with 7.2% growth in pending sales, keeps Knox County on track for 7,800–8,300 closings for the full year — a 3%–7% increase over 2025. The median should finish 2026 in the $400K–$410K range. The absorption rate will likely hold between 2.8 and 3.1 months through year end, keeping the market tilted in sellers’ favor without being overly aggressive. This is the steady, dependable market that anchors the region — no drama, just consistent performance.

Farragut Housing Market — August 2026

Farragut remains the most competitive residential market in East Tennessee, but August’s numbers need some careful reading. Closings came in at 43, down 10.4% from 48 a year ago. But so far this year, Farragut has posted 360 closings — a 10.8% increase over 2025’s pace. Year-to-date pending sales of 380 are up 11.8%, confirming that demand is alive and well.

The median sale price dropped to $655,100 in August from $753,750 a year ago — a 13% decline that deserves some context. This isn’t values falling. In a market where only 43 homes sell in a given month, what happens to sell that month heavily influences the median. August saw more activity in the $350K–$600K range and fewer $800K-plus closings than August 2025. The year-to-date median of $719,942 versus $699,900 — a 2.9% gain — gives you the real picture. Stable, moderate appreciation in a healthy, luxury-leaning market.

The absorption rate tightened to 2.80 months from 3.06 a year ago — an 8.5% improvement, making Farragut the tightest market in the region. Active listings barely moved, sitting at 125 versus 123. But here’s the supply story that matters: new listings dropped 21.9% in August (50 versus 64), and so far this year, only 487 new listings have come to market versus 479 last year — essentially no growth. In a market with this level of demand, flat supply is a constraint, not a balance.

The median days on market dropped to 20, down from 47 a year ago — a 57% reduction. When the typical Farragut home is going under contract in under three weeks, you’re looking at one of the most competitive markets in the region, full stop.

Farragut Luxury Market Update: So far this year, the $800K–$850K bracket is up 46.2% (19 sales versus 13). The $900K–$950K range surged 133% (14 versus 6). The $1.1M–$1.2M bracket gained 37.5% (22 versus 16). And the $1.5M–$1.6M range went from 1 sale to 3. Farragut’s evolution into a premier luxury market continues to gain momentum.

Farragut Forecast: The year-to-date absorption rate of 2.52 months is the tightest of any market in the region on a sustained basis. Expect the full-year median to finish in the $710K–$740K range. With new listings scarce and pending sales up nearly 12% year to date, buyers should expect competitive conditions to persist through the fourth quarter on anything well-priced below $800K. Sellers hold significant leverage here, but the data still shows the market punishes overpricing. Smart pricing is what drives the 20-day median days on market. Aspirational pricing creates the outliers that drag the numbers higher.

Blount County Housing Market — August 2026

Blount County’s August data tells a story of prices settling back down after July’s eye-catching jump. The median sale price came in at $395,000, up 2.6% from $385,000 a year ago. Last month, I highlighted the moment where Blount’s $420K median had crossed above Knox County’s $410K for the first time in this market cycle. August put that in perspective — Knox’s $400,500 median is back above Blount’s $395,000, and the year-to-date medians have essentially converged: Blount at $400,000, Knox at $399,900.

That convergence still means something. Historically, Blount County has traded at a meaningful discount to Knox. The fact that those two numbers are virtually identical reflects a real shift in how people perceive value between these two markets. But July’s $420K looks more like a one-month spike driven by what happened to sell, rather than a new normal.

The average sale price so far this year is particularly strong — $498,104 versus $450,213 last year, a 10.6% gain. That gap between the average and the median tells you the upper end of the Blount County market is punching above its weight, with higher-priced homes making up a bigger share of what’s selling.

Closings came in at 173, down 19.5% from 215 a year ago. But pending sales surged 20% (211 versus 175), and year-to-date pending are holding steady at 1,475 versus 1,509. The absorption rate sits at 3.20 months, essentially unchanged from 3.23 a year ago. Active listings are flat at 557 versus 552.

Homes are selling at a median of 16 days on market, down from 24 a year ago — a 33% improvement. Sellers are getting 96.6% of their original asking price on average.

Blount County Forecast: The median should finish 2026 in the $395K–$410K range, representing 2%–5% appreciation from the year-to-date baseline. The convergence with Knox County pricing is the story to follow — if it sticks, it fundamentally changes how buyers weigh one market against the other. The 20% surge in August pending sales points to strong fall activity ahead, and the absorption rate should hold in the 3.0–3.3 range through year end.

Loudon County Housing Market — August 2026

Loudon County’s shift from a market that leaned toward buyers to one that clearly favors sellers kept picking up speed in August. The absorption rate compressed to 3.37 months from 4.75 a year ago — a 29% improvement that matches the pace of tightening I documented last month. So far this year, the absorption rate has averaged 3.60 months, down from 4.45 in 2025 — a 19% compression on a sustained basis.

The supply picture is driving everything. Active listings dropped 19% year over year, from 420 homes down to 340. New listings fell 12.6% (125 versus 143), and on a year-to-date basis, new listings are down 5.9%. Homeowners in Loudon County simply aren’t putting their homes on the market at last year’s rate, and the resulting squeeze on available inventory is reshaping how this market works.

Closings came in at 110, down 20.3% from 138 — but here’s the interesting part. Pending sales surged 22.8% (124 versus 101), and year-to-date pending are up 7.6% (882 versus 820). Year-to-date closings stand at 809 versus 765, a 5.8% gain. The August closings dip looks like it’s about comparing against a particularly strong August 2025, not a demand problem.

The median sale price posted at $507,500, up just 1% from $502,500 a year ago. The year-to-date median of $519,000 versus $514,900 shows modest 0.8% appreciation. Given how dramatically supply has tightened, you’d expect bigger price gains — and the reason you’re not seeing them is a pattern I’ve pointed out in earlier reports: overpricing.

That said, there’s an important shift in this month’s data. The median days on market dropped to 22 from 30 — a 27% improvement. That’s a meaningful pickup from the 102-day average I cited in the July report. What’s happening is that the overpricing problem may be starting to sort itself out. As sellers see tighter conditions and faster sales on realistically priced listings, pricing accuracy appears to be improving. The average days on market of 68 still reflects older, overpriced listings working their way through the system. But the median of 22 days tells you that today’s well-priced homes are moving quickly.

Loudon County Forecast: The absorption rate should keep compressing toward 3.0–3.4 months through year end. The 22.8% surge in pending sales signals strong fall closings ahead, and the median should finish 2026 in the $515K–$540K range. The improving days on market is the most encouraging trend here — if sellers continue adjusting their pricing to match what the market actually supports, Loudon County is set up for smoother transactions and potentially stronger price appreciation heading into 2027.

Lenoir City Housing Market — August 2026

Lenoir City continued along its path of steady, moderate performance in August. Last month I confirmed that June’s $529K median spike was a one-off driven by what happened to sell, when July normalized to $425K. August came in at $467,000, up 11.9% from $417,500 a year ago — a strong showing that reflects genuine appreciation rather than a quirk in the data.

The year-to-date median of $474,900 versus $450,000 represents a 5.5% gain. That’s the real trend line — steady, sustainable growth that tracks well with the broader Loudon County market.

Closings came in at 46, down 17.9% from 56 a year ago. But pending sales rose 13.3% (51 versus 45), and year-to-date pending are up 2.8% (366 versus 356). Year-to-date closings at 335 versus 331 are essentially flat. The August dip in closings matches the regional pattern of timing effects against strong 2025 comparisons, not a fundamental change in demand.

The absorption rate tightened to 3.43 months from 3.79 — a 9.5% improvement. Active listings dipped slightly to 147 from 153. New listings fell 12.7%.

The pricing story remains relevant here. Sellers are getting 96.0% of their original asking price, an improvement from the 94.4% I noted in July, suggesting more realistic initial pricing. The average days on market came down to 58 from 62, and the median of 26 days — while up from 13 a year ago — still represents reasonable marketing time in this price range. The fact that the rising median and the declining average are moving in opposite directions suggests that while some sellers still price too high out of the gate, the most extreme cases are becoming less common.

Lenoir City Forecast: The median should finish 2026 in the $465K–$490K range, right in line with last month’s forecast. The absorption rate should hold in the 3.3–3.5 range. Lenoir City’s fundamentals are solid — this is a market defined by consistency rather than big swings, and that predictability is a strength for both buyers and sellers.

Tellico Village Housing Market — August 2026

The transformation story that dominated last month’s report didn’t just continue in August — it hit its most dramatic level yet. The absorption rate dropped to 3.06 months from 5.58 a year ago. That’s a 45.2% compression, surpassing even July’s remarkable 42.5% improvement. Tellico Village has gone from solidly in buyer’s market territory a year ago to the third-tightest market in the entire region, trailing only Farragut and Knox County.

To put that in perspective: in January 2026, Tellico Village’s absorption rate was 3.77 months. By April, it had compressed to 3.62. By July, 3.42. And now August: 3.06. That is a sustained, accelerating tightening that shows no signs of slowing down.

The Supply Story Keeps Getting More Intense. Active listings collapsed 36.1% year over year — from 166 homes to just 106. That’s the most dramatic inventory reduction of any market in this report. New listings fell 27.8% in August (39 versus 54), and so far this year, new listing volume is down 17.9% (348 versus 424). The community’s homeowners are overwhelmingly choosing to stay put, and the reasons haven’t changed: they have favorable mortgage terms they don’t want to give up, and the lifestyle gives them little motivation to leave.

The Demand Surge. While closings declined 15.9% in August (37 versus 44), pending sales tell an entirely different story. Fifty-three homes went under contract in August versus just 31 a year ago — a 71% surge. Year-to-date pending sales of 314 are up 9% from 288. That 71% August number is the single largest year-over-year demand increase in any market in this report. The gap between falling closings and surging contracts tells you September and October should see significantly stronger closing numbers.

The Speed of Sale Has Caught Up. In last month’s report, I pointed out what seemed like a contradiction: Tellico Village’s supply was getting tighter, but homes were still taking a long time to sell. The explanation was that many of the closings were homes that had been listed months earlier at higher prices, and as sellers adjusted their expectations, days on market would come down. The August data proves that out. The median days on market dropped to 23 from 45 a year ago — a 49% reduction. Twenty-three days. That’s fast by any standard, and it’s virtually unrecognizable compared to where this market sat twelve months ago. The average of 86 days still reflects the hangover from older, overpriced listings working their way through the system. But the median tells you the current reality: well-priced homes in Tellico Village are going under contract in roughly three weeks.

Sellers are getting 93.5% of their original asking price, up from the 93.7% gap I cited last month (a smaller gap means improvement here). Still the second-lowest ratio in the report behind Sevier County, but trending the right direction. As pricing accuracy continues to improve, this number should keep climbing.

The median sale price of $650,000 represents a modest 1.4% gain from $640,750 a year ago. The year-to-date median of $644,000 versus $618,000 reflects 4.2% appreciation. The average sale price so far this year is up 7.5% ($721,892 versus $671,284), pointing to continued strength at higher price points.

Tellico Village Luxury Brackets: So far this year, the $650K–$700K range is up 40.6% in sales (45 versus 32). The $800K–$850K bracket surged 300% (12 versus 3). The $850K–$900K range gained 80% (9 versus 5). And the pending data shows even more upper-bracket activity on the way — August pending in the $600K–$650K range jumped 233% (10 versus 3), the $650K–$700K bracket rose 133% (7 versus 3), and the $800K–$900K combined range went from 1 pending to 9.

Tellico Village Forecast: The median should finish 2026 in the $640K–$660K range. But here’s the bigger story: given the 71% surge in pending sales and continued inventory compression, the absorption rate could drop below 3 months by the fourth quarter. If it does, we’ll enter the zone where price appreciation typically starts to accelerate more meaningfully. For sellers who’ve been thinking about listing, the window is wide open. But the data is clear about who’s winning in this market: the sellers who price accurately from day one are capitalizing on this transformation. The 23-day median days on market proves it. The sellers still testing aspirational prices are the ones dragging the average to 86 days and the sale-to-asking-price ratio down to 93.5%. Price it right, and this market will reward you faster than at any point in the past several years.

Anderson County Housing Market — August 2026

Anderson County continues to be the region’s most affordable entry point, and August reinforced both its value and its gradual, gentle loosening trend. The median sale price came in at $349,900, essentially flat with $350,000 a year ago. The year-to-date number tells a stronger story: $345,000 versus $324,900, a 6.2% gain. The average sale price so far this year is up 6.2% as well ($384,963 versus $362,576), confirming broad-based appreciation rather than a handful of expensive sales skewing the numbers.

Closings came in at 74, down just 3.9% from 77 — the smallest year-over-year decline of any market in the report. Year-to-date closings of 620 are up 3.5% from 599. Pending sales rose 9.6% in August (91 versus 83), and year to date, pending are up 6.4% (662 versus 622). Across the board, the demand numbers are positive.

The absorption rate loosened to 3.37 months from 3.19 — a 5.6% increase that makes Anderson County one of only two markets (along with Knox County) to see conditions ease year over year. Active listings rose 7.6% (255 versus 237), though new listings actually declined 22.6% (96 versus 124). The inventory growth is coming from homes sitting on the market a bit longer, not from a wave of new listings.

The average days on market rose to 55 from 45 — a 22% increase — and the median ticked up to 19 from 16. This is the one yellow flag in Anderson County’s data. The longer time on market suggests that some sellers are testing prices above what buyers are willing to pay, and the slightly looser conditions give buyers a bit more room to be selective.

Anderson County Price Bracket Analysis: So far this year, the $400K–$450K bracket surged 20.8% (64 versus 53), and the $450K–$500K range jumped 76.7% (53 versus 30). The $700K–$750K bracket is up 117% (13 versus 6), and the $750K–$800K range gained 400% (10 versus 2). Anderson County is seeing the same pattern visible in Roane County — the overall mix of what’s selling is shifting toward higher price points as value-conscious buyers migrate over from more expensive markets.

Anderson County Forecast: The median should finish 2026 in the $340K–$355K range, representing 5%–9% annual appreciation. The absorption rate will likely drift toward 3.3–3.5 months — still tilted toward sellers, but giving buyers a few more options than the sub-3 conditions seen earlier this year. For anyone priced out of Knox County at $400K or Blount County at $395K–$400K, Anderson County at $350K offers real value with solid fundamentals and steady demand growth. This remains the best value entry point into the East Tennessee market.

Roane County Housing Market — August 2026

Roane County’s momentum story continued through August with strong demand, though closings cooled off from the explosive 36% growth rate posted in July. August delivered 66 closings, down 15.4% from 78 a year ago. But the year-to-date picture tells the real story: 624 closings versus 538, a 16% gain. Year-to-date pending sales of 680 are up 20.6% from 564. And August pending surged 23.1% (96 versus 78). This market’s demand trajectory remains the strongest in the region by a wide margin.

The median sale price rose to $370,625, up 14.6% from $323,440 — another strong monthly showing. With relatively small sample sizes, I continue to rely more heavily on the year-to-date median of $345,000 versus $318,500, an 8.3% gain, as a more reliable measure. The average sale price so far this year is up 7.3%, confirming solid appreciation across the price spectrum.

The absorption rate tightened meaningfully to 3.29 months from 4.50 a year ago — a 27% compression. Active listings fell 12.2% (252 versus 287). New listings rose 11.1% (110 versus 99), and year to date are up a modest 3%. So supply is growing slightly, but nowhere near fast enough to keep up with demand. When pending sales are up 20.6% year to date against only 3% growth in new listings, this market is consuming inventory faster than it’s being replaced.

Roane County Upmarket Migration Continues: So far this year, the $350K–$400K range surged 46% (73 versus 50). The $400K–$450K bracket jumped 32.6% (61 versus 46). The $450K–$500K range gained 53.8% (40 versus 26). The $800K–$850K bracket is up 143% (17 versus 7). This is the same pattern I highlighted last month — it’s not just homes getting more expensive on their own, it’s the entire profile of what’s selling shifting upward as buyers migrate in from pricier markets.

Roane County Forecast: The median should settle in the $345K–$365K range for the full year. The absorption rate is on track to finish below 3.5 months, and if the 20.6% pending growth rate holds through the third quarter, dropping below 3 months is achievable by year end. Transaction volume should moderate from the 16% year-to-date pace but stay solidly positive. For buyers, Roane County at $370K offers the second-most-affordable entry point behind Anderson County, paired with the strongest demand momentum in the region. The math here is compelling — similar pricing to Anderson County with greater volume growth and tightening conditions.

Sevier County Housing Market — August 2026

Sevier County remains the region’s outlier and the only buyer’s market, but August brought accelerating dynamics that deserve close attention. Closings surged 32.7% — 223 sales versus 168 a year ago. That’s the strongest year-over-year closings growth of any market in this report by a wide margin. Pending sales rose 13.8% (404 versus 355), confirming this isn’t a one-month blip.

But here’s what makes Sevier County’s August data different from everything else I track: the median sale price went down. It fell to $458,000 from $509,950 a year ago — a 10.2% decline and the only price decrease in any market I cover. This isn’t a quirk of a small sample. At 223 closings, the data set is large enough to be meaningful. Prices are genuinely coming down in Sevier County.

The reason is straightforward. New listings surged 53.2% — from 410 to 628. That’s an extraordinary jump in supply, driven by the continued unwinding of investment properties and former short-term rentals. Active listings sit at 2,020 versus 2,010 a year ago — essentially flat because the volume of closings is absorbing new supply almost as fast as it arrives. But the makeup of that inventory — heavily weighted toward former rental properties priced for a market that no longer exists — is actively pulling prices down.

The absorption rate sits at 9.34 months — deep in buyer’s market territory and unchanged from July. Despite the 33% surge in closings, the sheer volume of available homes keeps the ratio elevated. The average seller is getting just 93.0% of their original asking price — the lowest in the region — meaning the typical seller leaves about 7 cents on every dollar between their first asking price and what they actually get.

The average days on market of 92 and median of 56 are the highest in the report, consistent with a market where buyers have real negotiating power and no pressure to rush.

Sevier County Forecast: The 33% closings surge is a positive sign, and if sustained, the absorption rate could compress toward 8.5–9 months by year end. But balanced conditions aren’t achievable in 2026 — there’s simply too much inventory to work through. The median should settle in the $450K–$475K range for the full year, likely at the lower end of or slightly below the $460K–$480K range I forecast last month, given the price erosion we saw in August. The 53% surge in new listings is the number to watch — if investment property liquidation keeps up this pace, prices will stay under pressure. For buyers, Sevier County offers the most negotiating room in the region. For sellers, aggressive pricing from day one isn’t optional — it’s the only strategy that works. That 93% sale-to-asking-price ratio means every seller who overprices pays for it in both time and money.

Regional Absorption Rate Comparison — August 2026 vs. August 2025

The trend toward uniformly tight conditions that defined the July report got even stronger in August. Here’s how all 9 markets rank, from tightest supply to loosest:

Farragut: 2.80 months (down from 3.06 — improved 8.5%)
Knox County: 3.02 months (up from 3.00 — essentially unchanged)
Tellico Village: 3.06 months (down from 5.58 — improved 45.2%)
Blount County: 3.20 months (down from 3.23 — improved 0.9%)
Roane County: 3.29 months (down from 4.50 — improved 26.9%)
Anderson County: 3.37 months (up from 3.19 — loosened 5.6%)
Loudon County: 3.37 months (down from 4.75 — improved 29.1%)
Lenoir City: 3.43 months (down from 3.79 — improved 9.5%)
Sevier County: 9.34 months (the lone outlier)

The most striking thing is how compressed the field has become. Eight markets now sit between 2.80 and 3.43 months — a spread of just 0.63 months separating the tightest from the loosest. In July’s data, that same spread was 0.82 months. A year ago, the non-Sevier range stretched from 3.00 to nearly 5.60 months. The convergence toward uniformly tight, seller-favorable conditions is the defining structural trend of 2026, and it keeps narrowing month after month.

Tellico Village’s leap from sixth-tightest in July (3.37 months) to third-tightest in August (3.06 months) is the single most dramatic repositioning in the region. This market has gone from near the bottom of the pack to near the top in just two months.

For a simple rule of thumb: anything below 4 months of supply generally favors sellers, 4–6 months is balanced, and above 6 months favors buyers. Every market in East Tennessee except Sevier County is now firmly in seller’s territory.

Regional Median Sale Price Rankings — August 2026

Farragut: $655,100 (August monthly; YTD $719,942)
Tellico Village: $650,000 (August monthly; YTD $644,000)
Loudon County: $507,500 (August monthly; YTD $519,000)
Lenoir City: $467,000 (August monthly; YTD $474,900)
Sevier County: $458,000 (August monthly)
Knox County: $400,500 (August monthly; YTD $399,900)
Blount County: $395,000 (August monthly; YTD $400,000)
Roane County: $370,625 (August monthly; YTD $345,000)
Anderson County: $349,900 (August monthly; YTD $345,000)

A note on reading these: for smaller-volume markets like Farragut, Tellico Village, and Lenoir City, the year-to-date median is a more reliable gauge of true pricing. When only a few dozen homes sell in a given month, the mix of what sells can swing the median significantly — as Farragut’s August data clearly illustrates.

There’s a market for every budget in East Tennessee, from entry points around $345K in Anderson County to over $700K in Farragut.

Pending Sales: The Forward Indicator That Matters Most This Month

Normally, closed sales are the headline number. But this month, the pending data is more important because it tells you where the market is heading, not where it’s been. Here’s how August pending sales compared to a year ago across all 9 markets:

Tellico Village: +71.0% (53 vs. 31)
Roane County: +23.1% (96 vs. 78)
Loudon County: +22.8% (124 vs. 101)
Blount County: +20.0% (211 vs. 175)
Sevier County: +13.8% (404 vs. 355)
Lenoir City: +13.3% (51 vs. 45)
Knox County: +11.6% (693 vs. 621)
Anderson County: +9.6% (91 vs. 83)
Farragut: -14.3% (36 vs. 42)

Eight of nine markets posted year-over-year gains. The sole exception — Farragut — likely reflects a supply problem in the region’s tightest market (2.80 months, only 125 active listings) rather than a lack of demand. When there simply isn’t enough to buy, pending sales will naturally pull back.

The breadth of this surge — particularly the 20%-plus gains in Tellico Village, Roane County, Loudon County, and Blount County — points to a strong September and October closing season. The August closings dip across the region looks like a timing effect, not a trend change.

The Big Picture: War, Oil, and the Rate Environment That Shapes Everything

Now let’s step back and look at the forces outside East Tennessee that are shaping what happens inside it — because there’s a direct line running from a conflict in the Middle East through the gas pump, through the Federal Reserve, straight into the mortgage rate on your next home purchase. Understanding that chain helps make sense of why rates are where they are, why they’re likely to stay there for a while, and what it means for your buying or selling decision.

Mortgage Rates: 7.12% and Why Nobody’s Listing

The 30-year mortgage rate sits at 7.12% as of this writing. That single number is the most important data point for understanding why the East Tennessee housing market looks the way it does — why supply is so tight, why homes are selling as fast as they are, and why 8 of 9 markets favor sellers despite consumer confidence numbers that would normally suggest trouble.

Here’s why. If you bought or refinanced a home between 2020 and early 2022, you probably locked in a rate somewhere between 2.65% and 4.5%. Moving to a new home today means giving up that rate and taking on one at 7.12%. On a $400,000 mortgage, that difference works out to roughly $1,300 more per month. That’s not a small adjustment — that’s a car payment on top of your housing cost.

That math is the reason so few people are listing their homes. It’s why new listings in Knox County are up only 6.7% despite a market that could absorb far more. It’s why Tellico Village new listings are down nearly 18%. It’s why Farragut saw basically flat listing volume year to date. People aren’t staying in their homes because they love them so much — many of them would happily move. They’re staying because the financial cost of moving is enormous.

This dynamic — often called the “lock-in effect” — is simultaneously the market’s biggest constraint and its strongest support system. It keeps supply low, which keeps competition high, which prevents price declines, which builds equity for existing homeowners, which gives them even less reason to sell. It feeds on itself.

The lock-in effect breaks when rates come down enough to close the gap — probably into the low 6s at minimum, and more likely into the 5s. Based on everything in today’s economic picture, that relief isn’t coming in 2026, and whether it comes in 2027 depends on events that are largely beyond anyone in Washington’s control.

The Federal Reserve: New Leadership, No Hints, and Hawks at the Table

The Fed’s approach has changed noticeably since Chair Kevin Warsh took over in May 2026. The most important shift isn’t the rate decision itself — the Committee held steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its July meeting, keeping the pause that started after rate cuts late last year. The important shift is in how the Fed communicates.

Previous Fed leadership would hint, in fairly elaborate ways, about what it planned to do next. Press conferences, meeting projections, carefully worded statements — all designed to give markets a sense of direction. Chair Warsh has stripped that away. Statements are now shorter, more factual, and conspicuously silent about what comes next. For financial markets used to being hand-held, this is a big change, and it’s adding a layer of uncertainty to mortgage rates that wouldn’t exist if the Fed were more transparent about its plans.

At the July meeting, three of twelve voting members actually wanted to raise rates — the strongest push for a hike in years. While they were outvoted, their position reflects a real debate inside the Committee. Inflation is running at 3.4% year over year, well above the Fed’s 2% target. Energy prices are up more than 16% from a year ago. The statement acknowledged “elevated inflation” driven partly by “energy supply shocks” — a polite way of referencing the war in Iran.

The next Fed meeting is September 15–16, essentially right now as this report publishes. Markets have been pricing in a possible rate increase, and with August inflation numbers showing a noticeable pickup, the case for a hike has gotten stronger since July. If the Fed raises rates, mortgage rates could push toward 7.25%–7.50%, making the lock-in effect even more intense. If they hold, the current environment persists — which is already high enough to restrict housing activity but not so high that the market breaks.

The practical takeaway: don’t make real estate decisions based on the hope that rates will drop soon. The Fed isn’t signaling cuts. Three members want to go the other direction. And the main driver of elevated inflation — oil prices linked to a conflict in the Persian Gulf — isn’t something the Fed can fix with monetary policy. The rate environment you see today is the one you should plan around for the next 6–12 months.

Inflation: Two Stories in One Number

The August inflation data, released September 11, tells a split story that mirrors the Fed’s own dilemma.

Strip out food and energy — what economists call “core” inflation — and things look pretty good. Core prices rose 2.4% from a year ago, down from 2.5% the month before. That’s within shouting distance of the Fed’s 2% target and represents real progress.

But the number consumers actually experience — the full inflation figure including everything you buy — tells a very different story. Prices overall rose 0.4% in just one month (quadrupling July’s 0.1%) and are running 3.4% above a year ago. The culprit is clear: energy. Gas prices jumped 3.9% in a single month and accounted for more than a third of the entire increase. Energy costs overall are up 16.3% from last year.

For housing, this split matters because mortgage rates respond to both the Fed’s official rate and to what the bond market expects about future inflation. Core inflation trending toward 2.4% argues for rate stability or eventual cuts. But energy-driven headline inflation at 3.4% creates doubt about whether those core gains will hold or whether high energy costs will eventually seep into everything else through higher transportation and production costs. That doubt is what keeps the 10-year Treasury yield elevated — and mortgage rates go where the 10-year goes.

The good news: shelter inflation — the cost of housing within the inflation measure — rose just 0.3% in August. That’s consistent with a gradual cooling that’s been underway for over a year. Housing costs are not the inflation problem anymore. Energy is. And energy inflation isn’t being driven by anything the Federal Reserve can control.

The Iran Conflict: The Thread That Connects Everything

It’s impossible to talk honestly about mortgage rates, inflation, or the economic outlook without addressing the elephant in the room. The U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026 is the single largest outside force affecting the American housing market, and it works through a chain that runs directly from the Persian Gulf through your gas tank to your mortgage rate.

Brent crude oil is trading in the $104–$108 range, up roughly 60% from a year ago. The Strait of Hormuz — through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil passes — remains partially disrupted. The ceasefire from April has proven fragile, with military exchanges continuing through June, July, and into September. In just the past few weeks, there have been ship attacks in the Strait, Houthi actions against Saudi Arabia, Saudi pipeline shutdowns, explosions on Qeshm Island, and postponed talks between Iran and Gulf states about keeping shipping lanes open. Oil markets remain highly sensitive to every headline.

The connection to your mortgage rate is direct and mechanical. High oil prices push gas prices up. High gas prices push headline inflation up. Headline inflation above 3% prevents the Fed from cutting rates. The Fed holding or hiking keeps mortgage rates above 7%. Rates above 7% keep the lock-in effect in place. The lock-in effect restricts housing supply. And restricted supply keeps markets tight and supports prices.

If the conflict de-escalates meaningfully — if shipping through Hormuz normalizes, if oil drops back toward $70–$80 a barrel — the whole chain reverses. Headline inflation falls toward 2.4% (where core already is), the Fed gets room to cut, mortgage rates come down, the lock-in effect loosens, supply increases, and the market rebalances. That’s possible, but no one can tell you when or if it happens. The most recent developments — ship attacks, stalled negotiations, continued regional spillover — suggest it’s not happening soon.

The honest assessment for anyone making a real estate decision in East Tennessee: the timeline for meaningful mortgage rate relief is tied to events in the Persian Gulf, and no one — not the Fed, not Wall Street, not this report — can predict when those events will turn favorable.

The Economy: Solid but Complicated

The broader economy is holding up despite headwinds, though the picture is getting more complicated.

The economy grew at a 1.5% annual pace in the second quarter of 2026, slowing from 2.1% in the first quarter. Consumer spending and business investment held up, but higher import costs (partly from expensive energy) and lower government spending acted as drags. That 1.5% growth rate is okay but not great — it’s the kind of number that neither excites nor alarms.

Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed’s real-time estimate for the current quarter (July through September) is tracking around 4.4% growth — which, if it materializes, would be one of the strongest quarters in years. That kind of gap between a soft second quarter and a potentially strong third quarter creates uncertainty, which is another ingredient keeping rates elevated.

The job market remains the economy’s foundation. Employers added 162,000 jobs in August — a solid number that beat recent trends. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, and average wages grew 3.1% from a year ago. That 3.1% wage growth matters for housing because it roughly matches the pace of home price appreciation across most East Tennessee markets. Affordability isn’t getting better, but it isn’t dramatically getting worse either — incomes are keeping pace with prices, even if they’re not keeping pace with higher rates.

For East Tennessee specifically, this means the demand base behind home purchases is still strong. People have jobs, they’re earning more, and the region continues to attract people from higher-cost parts of the country. The market’s constraint isn’t demand — the pending sales data across 8 of 9 markets proves that clearly. The constraints are rates (which limit what buyers can afford) and supply (which limits what’s available to buy).

Consumer Confidence: What People Say vs. What People Do

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 47.8 in September’s preliminary reading — down 7.5% from August and down 13.2% from a year ago. To put that in context, readings below 50 have historically been associated with recessionary conditions. People say they feel bad about the economy. They point to gas prices, the war, and the general cost of living.

And yet. The housing data I just walked through shows pending sales surging across 8 of 9 markets. Closings so far this year are positive in most markets. Prices are still going up.

This is a pattern that keeps getting wider. People tell pollsters the economy is terrible, and then they go out and buy houses. The explanation is in who’s actually buying: employed professionals with stable incomes, equity from their current homes, and the financial ability to transact even at today’s rates. Sentiment surveys capture how the broader population feels about gas prices and the news. Housing data captures what the financially capable portion of the population is actually doing. And that portion is acting decisively.

For sellers, don’t let discouraging headlines convince you there’s no demand. The pending data says otherwise. For buyers, don’t assume negative consumer sentiment will create bargains. Other buyers are showing up despite the same headlines you’re reading.

New Construction: Not Riding to the Rescue

Nationally, housing starts fell 12.4% in July to a pace of about 1.24 million homes per year — well below what the country needs to address its long-running housing shortage. Builder confidence sat at just 35 in August, deep in pessimistic territory (50 is neutral). Builders are pulling back because of high rates, high construction costs, and uncertain demand.

For East Tennessee, this means the region’s supply shortage isn’t a short-term problem that new construction will solve. Builders aren’t building aggressively at these rates, and the homes that do get built are increasingly aimed at higher price points where the profit margins justify the costs. The affordable and middle segments — where most of the demand lives — will continue to rely primarily on existing homes. Which means the lock-in effect’s suppression of resale listings will remain the dominant supply story.

Rate Forecast and the “Should I Wait?” Question

Based on everything in this section, here’s how I see rates playing out.

Through the end of 2026, the 30-year mortgage rate is most likely to trade between 6.85% and 7.35%. A Fed hike at the September meeting would push toward the upper end. A hold with the current wait-and-see approach keeps rates roughly where they are now. The most probable scenario is a continued hold with no directional hints, keeping rates in the 7.0%–7.2% range.

Into the first half of 2027, the path depends almost entirely on oil prices and the Iran conflict. If the situation in the Gulf stabilizes and oil drops below $85, headline inflation could fall toward 2.5%–2.8%, giving the Fed room for a couple of small rate cuts that could bring mortgage rates into the 6.5%–6.75% range. If the conflict escalates or oil stays above $100, rates stay above 7% and the lock-in effect continues at current intensity.

So — should you wait for rates to come down?

Here’s the honest answer. If you wait for rates to drop, you’re betting on a geopolitical resolution in the Middle East. That’s not a housing market bet. That’s a foreign policy bet. Meanwhile, every month you wait, you’re competing against the same surge in buyer activity documented in this report. And the supply that would make waiting worthwhile isn’t materializing, because the same high rates that make you want to wait are the reason existing homeowners aren’t listing.

The math continues to favor buying now — at the right property and the right price — and refinancing later if and when rates come down. The alternative is waiting for a rate environment that may or may not arrive on a timeline nobody can predict, while competing in a market where 8 of 9 absorption rates are below 3.5 months and getting tighter. The data supports action. The sentiment surveys support hesitation. This report follows the data.

Five Trends to Watch — Fourth Quarter 2026

First — Tellico Village breaking below 3 months. With the absorption rate at 3.06 and pending sales up 71%, breaking below the 3-month mark in September or October is a real possibility. If it happens, expect price appreciation to pick up speed in the fourth quarter and into 2027. The median days on market has already dropped to 23 — this market is behaving like a completely different place than it was a year ago.

Second — The pending-to-closing conversion. August saw closings fall across 8 of 9 markets while pending surged. September’s data will tell us whether that closing dip was a timing quirk or the start of something more meaningful. The pending data says timing quirk. September’s numbers will confirm or challenge that.

Third — Sevier County’s price trajectory. The 10.2% median price decline is the sharpest price movement in any market in this report. If the 53% surge in new listings continues, prices will stay under pressure. The question is whether closings can sustain the 33% growth rate needed to absorb all that supply.

Fourth — The Blount-Knox price question. July’s crossover — where Blount temporarily priced above Knox — reversed in August. Year to date, the two markets are within $100 of each other. Whether Blount permanently establishes itself at Knox County pricing or settles back to its historical discount will shape how buyers evaluate these two markets going forward.

Fifth — Anderson and Roane County as the next discovery markets. Both are posting 6%–8% year-to-date appreciation with medians in the $345K–$370K range. As Knox and Blount converge at $400K and Loudon/Lenoir City push toward $475K–$520K, the relative value in Anderson and Roane becomes increasingly hard to ignore. Watch for continued migration of buyers from pricier markets into these two communities.

Bottom Line for East Tennessee Sellers

Conditions favor you across the region — 8 of 9 markets are in seller’s territory — but the August data reinforces the same message I deliver every month: pricing strategy is the difference between a 17-day sale and a 90-day sale. Tellico Village’s numbers illustrate this perfectly. The median days on market is 23 while the average is 86. That gap is the distance between smart pricing and wishful pricing. In Farragut, the median is 20 days. In Blount County, 16. In Knox County, 17. The markets where sellers price accurately are the markets where homes sell fastest. Price it right from day one, and this market will reward you. Overprice, and you’ll join the outliers that drag every average higher.

Bottom Line for East Tennessee Buyers

The pending sales surge across the region signals increasing competition heading into fall. If you’ve been on the fence, the data is telling you that more buyers — not fewer — are jumping in. The best value opportunities remain Anderson County at $350K and Roane County at $370K, both offering strong fundamentals at meaningful discounts to the regional average. Sevier County at $458K offers the most negotiating room, with buyers typically landing about 7% below original asking price — but the structural challenges from the short-term rental washout add complexity. In every other market, the absorption rate is below 3.5 months and getting tighter. Acting on today’s conditions rather than waiting for a rate drop that may not come is the approach the data supports.

About Troy Stavros

Troy Stavros is a residential real estate professional with CornerStone Realty Associates, serving buyers and sellers across Knox County, Farragut, Blount County, Loudon County, Lenoir City, Tellico Village, Anderson County, Roane County, and Sevier County. Troy publishes monthly data-driven market reports covering the greater East Tennessee region.

Ready to discuss your next move in East Tennessee real estate? Whether you’re buying, selling, or simply exploring your options, Troy is available for a no-obligation conversation about your specific situation.