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What’s Happening with Home Prices in Knoxville?

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Many people have questions about home prices right now. How much have prices risen over the past 12 months? What’s happening with home values right now? What’s projected for next year? Here’s a look at the answers to all three of these questions.

How much have home values appreciated over the last 12 months?

What’s Happening with Home Prices? | MyKCM

According to the latest Home Price Index from CoreLogic, home values have increased by 18.1% compared to this time last year. The average sales price in Knoxville increased by 18.74%. Additionally, prices have gone up at an accelerated pace for each of the last eight months (see graph below): The increase in the rate of appreciation that’s shown by CoreLogic coincides with data from the other two main home price indices: the FHFA Home Price Index and the S&P Case Shiller Index.

The last year has shown tremendous home price appreciation, which is resulting in a major gain in wealth for homeowners through rising equity.

What’s happening with home prices right now?

What’s Happening with Home Prices? | MyKCM

All three indices mentioned above also show that while appreciation is in the high double digits right now, that price acceleration is beginning to level off (see graph below):Year-over-year appreciation is still close to 20%, but it’s clearly plateauing at that rate. Many experts believe it will drop below 15% by the end of the year.

Keep in mind, that doesn’t mean home values will depreciate. It means the rate of appreciation will slow, yet stay well above the 25-year average of 5.1%.

What about next year?

The recent surge in prices is the result of heavy buyer demand and a shortage of homes available for sale. Most experts believe that as more housing inventory comes to market (both new construction and existing homes), the supply and demand for housing will come more into balance. That balance will bring a lower rate of appreciation in 2022. Here’s a look at home price forecasts from six major entities, and they all project future appreciation:

  1. Fannie Mae
  2. Freddie Mac
  3. Mortgage Bankers Association
  4. Home Price Expectation Survey
  5. Zelman & Associates
  6. National Association of Realtors
What’s Happening with Home Prices? | MyKCM

While the projected rate of appreciation varies among the experts, due to things like supply chain challenges, virus variants, and more, it’s clear that home values will continue to appreciate next year.

Bottom Line

There have been historic levels of home price appreciation over the last year. That pace will slow as we finish 2021 and enter into 2022. Prices will still rise in value, just at a much more moderate pace, which is good news for the housing market.

Have questions? Thinking about buying or selling a home? Contact the Troy Stavros TEAM at CornerStone Realty Associates at 865-999-0925 and let’s talk about formulating a plan to reach your real estate goals.

Knoxville Home Sellers Are in a Sweet Spot [INFOGRAPHIC]

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Sellers Are in a Sweet Spot [INFOGRAPHIC] | MyKCM

Some Highlights

  • In today’s sellers’ market, you’re set up to win big when you list your house in Knoxville.
  • That’s because Knoxville homes are selling fast, receiving 4.4 offers on average and often selling above the asking price. Then, when you buy your next home, you’ll also win by addressing your changing needs and taking advantage of near historic-low mortgage rates.
  • If you’re ready to make a move, let’s connect so you can capitalize on today’s market and find your next dream home. Contact me, Troy Stavros with CornerStone Realty Associates today at 865-999-0925. My team and I look forward to serving you!

Home Price Appreciation and What It Means for Sellers in Knoxville

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A Look at Home Price Appreciation and What It Means for Sellers | MyKCM

When you hear the phrase home price appreciation, what does it mean to you? Through context clues alone, chances are you know it has to do with rising home prices. And as a seller in Knoxville, you know rising home prices are good news for your potential sale. But let’s look past the dollar signs and dive deeper into the concept. To truly understand home price appreciation, you need to know how it works and why it matters to you.

Investopedia defines appreciation like this:

“Appreciation, in general terms, is an increase in the value of an asset over time. The increase can occur for a number of reasons, including increased demand or weakening supply, or as a result of changes in inflation or interest rates. This is the opposite of depreciation, which is a decrease in value over time.”

A Look at Home Price Appreciation and What It Means for Sellers | MyKCM

When we consider this definition and how it applies to real estate, a few words stick out: supply and demand. In today’s Knoxville real estate market, we’re experiencing high buyer demand and very few sellers listing their homes for sale (see maps below): No matter the industry, anytime there’s more demand than supply, prices naturally rise. It happens because buyers are willing to pay more to secure the scarce product or service they’re looking for. That’s exactly what’s happening in today’s Knoxville real estate market. Buyers are competing with one another to purchase a home, leading to bidding wars that drive prices up. For sellers, the rising prices mean that opportunity is knocking.

A Look at Home Price Appreciation and What It Means for Sellers | MyKCM

According to Quicken Loans, the national average home price appreciation rate is between 3-5% in a typical year. Today, home prices are appreciating well beyond the norm thanks to high demand. Here are the latest expert projections on the rate of home price appreciation for this year (see chart below):

Compared to the normal pace of 3-5% appreciation per year, the current average forecast of nearly 11.5% is significant.

A Look at Home Price Appreciation and What It Means for Sellers | MyKCM

For Knoxville home sellers, this means that with the current rise in prices, your house may be worth more than you realize. That price appreciation helps give your equity a boost. Equity is the difference between what you owe on the home and its market value based on factors like price appreciation. It works like this (see chart below): You can use your built-up equity to power a move into your dream home, or you can put it toward life-changing goals like funding an education or opening a business.

But don’t wait. While price appreciation in Knoxville is strong now, those same experts say it’ll start to appreciate at a more normalized pace next year. If you list your house in Knoxville sooner rather than later, you’ll be in a better position to capitalize on the higher-than-average home price appreciation we’re seeing today.

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking of selling your house in Knoxville, there really is no time like the present. Let’s connect so you can get an expert market analysis of your home and its potential. Contact me, Troy Stavros with CornerStone Realty Associates today at 865-999-0925. My team looks forward to serving you!

Diving Deep into the Biggest Concerns of Today’s Knoxville Home Buyers

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Diving Deep into Today’s Biggest Buyer Concerns | MyKCM

Last week, Fannie Mae released their Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI). Though the survey showed 77% of respondents believe it’s a “good time to sell,” it also confirms what many are sensing: an increasing number of Americans believe it’s a “bad time to buy” a home. The percentage of those surveyed saying it’s a “bad time to buy” hit 64%, up from 56% last month and 38% last July.

The latest HPSI explains:

“Consumers also continued to cite high home prices as the predominant reason for their ongoing and significant divergence in sentiment toward homebuying and home-selling conditions. While all surveyed segments have expressed greater negativity toward homebuying over the last few months, renters who say they are planning to buy a home in the next few years have demonstrated an even steeper decline in homebuying sentiment than homeowners. It’s likely that affordability concerns are more greatly affecting those who aspire to be first-time homeowners than other consumer segments.”

Let’s look closely at the market conditions that impact home affordability.

A mortgage payment is determined by the price of the home and the mortgage rate on the loan used to purchase it. Lately, monthly mortgage payments have gone up for buyers for two key reasons:

  1. Mortgage rates have increased from 2.65% this past January to 2.9%.
  2. Home prices have increased by 15.4% over the last 12 months.

Based on these rising factors, a home may be less affordable today, but it doesn’t mean it’s not affordable.

Three weeks ago, ATTOM Data released their second-quarter 2021 U.S. Home Affordability Report which explained that the major ownership costs on the typical home as a percent of the average national wage had increased from 22.2% in the second quarter of 2020 to 25.2% in the second quarter of this year. They also went on to explain:

“Still, the latest level is within the 28 percent standard lenders prefer for how much homeowners should spend on mortgage payments, home insurance and property taxes.”

In the same report, Todd Teta, Chief Product Officer with ATTOM, confirms:

“Average workers across the country can still manage the major expenses of owning a home, based on lender standards.”

It’s true that monthly mortgage payments are greater than they were last year (as the ATTOM data shows), but they’re not unaffordable when compared to the last 30 years. While payments have increased dramatically during that several-decade span, if we adjust for inflation, today’s mortgage payments are 10.7% lower than they were in 1990.

What’s that mean for you? While you may not get the homebuying deal in Knoxville someone you know got last year, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t still buy a home. Here are your alternatives to buying and the trade-offs you’ll have with each.

Alternative 1: I’ll rent instead.

Some may consider renting as the better option. However, the monthly cost of renting a home is skyrocketing. According to the July National Rent Report from Apartment List:

“…So far in 2021, rental prices have grown a staggering 9.2%. To put that in context, in previous years growth from January to June is usually just 2 to 3%. After this month’s spike, rents have been pushed well above our expectations of where they would have been had the pandemic not disrupted the market.”

If you continue to rent in Knoxville, chances are your rent will keep increasing at a fast pace. That means you could end up spending significantly more of your income on your rental as time goes on, which could make it even harder to save for a home.

Alternative 2: I’ll wait it out.

Others may consider waiting for another year and hoping that purchasing a home in Knoxville will be less expensive then. Let’s look at that possibility.

We’ve already established that a monthly mortgage payment is determined by the price of the home and the mortgage rate. A lower monthly payment would require one of those two elements to decrease over the next year. However, experts are forecasting the exact opposite:

  • The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) projects mortgage rates will be at 4.2% by the end of next year.
  • The Home Price Expectation Survey (HPES), a survey of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts, calls for home prices to increase by 5.12% in 2022.
Diving Deep into Today’s Biggest Buyer Concerns | MyKCM

Based on these projections, let’s see the possible impact on a monthly mortgage payment: By waiting until next year, you’d potentially pay more for the home, need a larger down payment, pay a higher mortgage rate, and pay an additional $3,696 each year over the life of the mortgage.

Bottom Line

While you may have missed the absolute best time to buy a home in Knoxville, waiting any longer may not make sense. Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says it best:

“Affordability is likely to worsen before it improves, so try to buy it now, if you can find it.”

Ready to talk more about it? Have questions? Want to get going and get into a home before it gets even more expensive? Contact me, Troy Stavros with CornerStone Realty Associates at 865-999-0925 today. My team and I are ready to educate, guide, and help you step by step until you are in your new home.

Experts Agree Home Prices Will Continue to Appreciate

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Experts Say Home Prices Will Continue to Appreciate | MyKCM

It’s clear that consumers in Knoxville and beyond are concerned about how quickly home values are rising. Many people fear the speed of appreciation may lead to a crash in prices later this year. In fact, Google reports that the search for “When is the housing market going to crash?” has actually spiked 2450% over the past month.

In addition, Jim Dalrymple II of Inman News notes:

“One of the most noteworthy things that came up in Inman’s conversations with agents was that every single one said they’ve had conversations with clients about whether or not the market is heading into a bubble.”

To alleviate some of these concerns, let’s look at what several financial analysts are saying about the current residential real estate market. Within the last thirty days, four of the major financial services giants came to the same conclusion: the housing market is strong, and price appreciation will continue. Here are their statements on the issue:

Goldman Sachs’ Research Note on Housing:

“Strong demand for housing looks sustainable. Even before the pandemic, demographic tailwinds and historically-low mortgage rates had pushed demand to high levels. … consumer surveys indicate that household buying intentions are now the highest in 20 years. … As a result, the model projects double-digit price gains both this year and next.”

Joe Seydl, Senior Markets Economist, J.P.Morgan:

“Homebuyers—interest rates are still historically low, though they are inching up. Housing prices have spiked during the last six-to-nine months, but we don’t expect them to fall soon, and we believe they are more likely to keep rising. If you are looking to purchase a new home, conditions now may be better than 12 months hence.”

Morgan Stanley, Thoughts on the Market Podcast:

“Unlike 15 years ago, the euphoria in today’s home prices comes down to the simple logic of supply and demand. And we at Morgan Stanley conclude that this time the sector is on a sustainably, sturdy foundation . . . . This robust demand and highly challenged supply, along with tight mortgage lending standards, may continue to bode well for home prices. Higher interest rates and post pandemic moves could likely slow the pace of appreciation, but the upward trajectory remains very much on course.”

Merrill Lynch’s Capital Market Outlook:

“There are reasons to believe that this is likely to be an unusually long and strong housing expansion. Demand is very strong because the biggest demographic cohort in history is moving through the household-formation and peak home-buying stages of its life cycle. Coronavirus-related preference changes have also sharply boosted home buying demand. At the same time, supply is unusually tight, with available homes for sale at record-low levels. Double-digit price gains are rationing the supply.”

Bottom Line

If you’re concerned about making the decision to buy or sell right now, let’s connect to discuss what’s happening in our local market. Call or text me, Troy Stavros with CornerStone Realty Associates at 865-999-0925 today. My team is ready to serve you.

This Isn’t a Housing Bubble. It’s Simply Lack of Supply. [INFOGRAPHIC]

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This Isn’t a Bubble. It’s Simply Lack of Supply. [INFOGRAPHIC] | Simplifying The Market

Some Highlights

  • In a recent article, Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), discussed the state of today’s housing market.
  • When addressing whether or not today’s high buyer competition and rising home prices are evidence of a housing bubble, Yun said that this “is not a bubble. It is simply lack of supply.”
  • Today’s Knoxville housing market is healthy, and the rising prices of Knoxville homes are driven by real buyer demand. Let’s connect to talk about the best ways to navigate such an energetic market.

Call/Text me, Troy Stavros with CornerStone Realty Associates at 865-999-0925 today! My team and I would love to serve you!