The Knoxville Housing Market at a Glance
The Knoxville housing market is changing, and October 2026 made it clear. With mortgage rates at 7.30%, fewer buyers signed contracts in every East Tennessee market we track. More homes are sitting for sale, but prices are still holding up almost everywhere.
In this monthly market report, I’m breaking down the latest local MLS data for single-family homes in Knox, Blount, Sevier, Loudon, Anderson and Roane counties, plus Farragut, Lenoir City and Tellico Village. You’ll see what’s happening, why it’s happening, and what it means if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home in the Knoxville area.
Key takeaways
- Buyer demand dropped. Homes going under contract fell from last year in all nine markets, down 18% in Knox County, 20% in Blount County and 26% in Sevier County.
- More homes are for sale. Knox County inventory climbed to 2,139 homes, up nearly 11% from last year and the highest level in 12 months.
- Prices are holding. Median sale prices rose about 5–9% from last October in eight of nine markets. Sevier County was the exception, down 7%.
- Homes are taking longer to sell. Average days on market rose in nearly every market. In Blount County, it went from 47 days to 70.
- The outlook: Expect a slower winter with steady prices, not a price crash. Mortgage rates are the biggest wildcard heading into spring 2027.
Mortgage Rates and the Economy: Why Buyers Are Hitting Pause
The biggest factor in the Knoxville real estate market right now is mortgage rates. The average 30-year fixed rate is 7.30% (Freddie Mac, November 11, 2026). On a $400,000 home with 10% down, that’s roughly $2,470 a month for the loan alone, before taxes and insurance.
Why are mortgage rates so high?
Inflation is still running hotter than the Federal Reserve wants, at about 3.7% over the past year. The Fed raised interest rates in September, held steady in October, and could raise them again at its December 8–9 meeting. The 10-year Treasury yield, which mortgage rates closely follow, is near 5%.
A strong economy, but households feel squeezed
On paper, the economy looks strong:
- Jobs: Employers added 165,000 jobs in October, far above the 65,000 expected. Unemployment is 4.1%.
- Growth: The economy grew at a 3.4% annual pace in the third quarter.
- Jobless claims: Weekly claims ticked up to 200,000, slightly above forecasts. It’s an early sign worth watching.
Many families don’t feel it, though. Paychecks are rising, but prices are rising just as fast. Oil is trading around $92 a barrel, up from the mid-$60s to $70s a year ago, after the conflict with Iran disrupted shipping. Consumer sentiment bounced to 51.0 in November from 48.0 in October, but it’s still near historic lows. More than half of people surveyed (57%) said high prices are hurting their standard of living.
There is one possible bright spot. If peace talks with Iran lead to a deal, oil prices and inflation could ease. That’s probably the clearest path to lower mortgage rates in 2027.
The National Housing Market: Fewer Sales, More Homes for Sale
Across the U.S., home sales fell to their slowest pace since 2010. According to the National Association of REALTORS®, existing-home sales dropped to a 3.75 million annual pace in October 2026. That’s down 5.5% from September and 8.8% from a year ago. Sales fell year over year in every region, including the South, where sales slowed to a 1.73 million pace.
Here’s what else is happening nationally:
- Contracts hit a record low. NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index fell to 66.0 in September, the lowest reading on record. Realtor.com data shows contract signings fell another 17% year over year in October.
- Inventory is climbing. About 1.18 million homes were for sale in October, up 7.4% from last year. That’s within about 7% of pre-pandemic levels.
- Fewer new listings. New listings fell 7.5% from last year. Inventory is growing because homes are sitting longer, not because more people are selling.
- Price cuts are common. The typical home spent 63 days on the market, and 20.5% of listings had a price reduction.
In short, buyers are pulling back nationwide while sellers are holding firm on price. East Tennessee is following the same pattern.
East Tennessee Housing Market Scorecard: October 2026
The table below compares all nine local markets for October 2026 against October 2025. “Months of supply” is how long it would take to sell every home currently listed if no new listings came on. Under about 5 months favors sellers, and over 6 favors buyers.
| Market | Median sale price | Price change | Homes sold | Under contract (change) | Homes for sale (change) | Months of supply | Avg. days on market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knox County | $410,000 | +7.9% | 524 | 524 (−18.0%) | 2,139 (+10.8%) | 3.3 | 57 |
| Sevier County | $538,000 | −7.2% | 245 | 254 (−25.5%) | 2,080 (+1.0%) | 9.3 | 131 |
| Blount County | $425,000 | +8.7% | 164 | 147 (−20.1%) | 582 (+3.6%) | 3.4 | 70 |
| Loudon County | $570,000 | +6.5% | 101 | 77 (−18.9%) | 388 (−3.7%) | 3.9 | 96 |
| Anderson County | $350,600 | +4.7% | 77 | 63 (−8.7%) | 292 (+18.2%) | 3.8 | 71 |
| Roane County | $372,500 | +6.4% | 67 | 70 (−6.7%) | 286 (−5.0%) | 3.7 | 92 |
| Lenoir City | $440,000 | +7.3% | 45 | 39 (−7.1%) | 177 (+20.4%) | 4.3 | 74 |
| Tellico Village | $682,500 | +5.8% | 42 | 30 (−6.2%) | 106 (−28.4%) | 3.0 | 125 |
| Farragut (37934) | $762,082 | +6.2% | 34 | 31 (−22.5%) | 136 (+17.2%) | 3.1 | 49 |
Source: local MLS data for single-family homes; Sevier County figures reported separately. Lenoir City and Tellico Village are in Loudon County, and Farragut is in Knox County.
Market-by-Market Breakdown
Knox County housing market
Knox County is the largest market in the region, and its trend is clear. Homes for sale have climbed every month since February, from 1,529 to 2,144. Homes going under contract have fallen every month since April, from 808 to 528, the lowest level in a year.
- Median sale price: $410,000 in October (+7.9%). For the full year, it’s about $400,000, essentially flat.
- Biggest slowdown: the $250,000–$400,000 range, where first-time and move-up buyers shop. Contracts in the $250,000–$300,000 range fell 45% from last year.
- Speed: A typical home took 28 days to go under contract, up from 19 last year. Homes sold for 95.3% of their original asking price, down from 97.3% in May.
Blount County housing market
In Blount County, buyers pulled back the hardest of the larger counties. Homes under contract fell 20%, and in the popular $350,000–$400,000 range they dropped from 35 to 22. The median sale price was $425,000 in October (+8.7%) and $400,900 for the year (+2.8%). Homes averaged 70 days on the market, up from 47. Asking prices are climbing faster than sale prices, so overpriced homes are the ones sitting.
Sevier County real estate: a buyer’s market
Sevier County is the one local market that has clearly tipped toward buyers. With 9.3 months of supply, the median sale price fell 7.2% to $538,000, and homes under contract fell about 26% (254 vs. 341). Homes sold for 91.9% of their original asking price after an average of 131 days. Second-home and vacation-rental buyers drive much of Sevier’s market, and they’re the first to step back when rates are high and gas prices weigh on tourism.
Loudon County housing market
Loudon County is the only larger county where inventory is lower than last year (388 homes, −3.7%). Sales are up 5.2% for the year, and the median sale price was $570,000 in October (+6.5%). New listings jumped 22% in October, helped by a wave of luxury listings in Lenoir City.
Lenoir City real estate
Lenoir City new listings nearly doubled in October (92 vs. 49), including nine new homes priced between $2 million and $2.25 million. Homes for sale are up 20%, and months of supply reached 4.3. Homes under about $700,000 are still selling well, at 99.4% of list price. The median sale price was $440,000 (+7.3%).
Tellico Village homes for sale
Tellico Village is the tightest market in our report. There are 28% fewer homes for sale than a year ago, and months of supply fell from 4.6 to 3.0. Sales are up 8.8% for the year, and the median sale price is $682,500. Many buyers are retirees paying cash, so they’re less affected by mortgage rates.
Farragut housing market
Farragut (ZIP 37934) had a quieter October, with sales and contracts both down about 23% and inventory up 17%. Even so, it’s still the fastest-selling market we track: a typical home goes under contract in about 20 days. The median sale price is about $762,000, and more of the new inventory is in the luxury range.
Anderson County housing market
Anderson County has 18% more homes for sale than a year ago, a 12-month high, even though fewer new listings came on. Prices are still rising: the median sale price is up 7.6% for the year to $349,800, the strongest price growth in our report. It remains one of the area’s more affordable options.
Roane County housing market
Roane County leads the region in sales growth, with 774 homes sold this year, up 15%. Inventory is down 5%, and the median sale price is $372,500 (+6.4%). Buyers priced out of Knox County appear to be finding value here, though some homes are taking longer to sell (92 days on average).
Knoxville Housing Market Forecast: Winter 2026–27
Our base case for East Tennessee is a slower winter with steady prices, not a price crash. Here’s what we expect from now through March 2027:
- Fewer sales. Contracts signed in October become closings in November and December, so expect closings in Knox, Blount, Loudon and Farragut to run about 10–20% below last year.
- More choices for buyers. Inventory should stay above last winter’s levels. In Knox County, we expect it to stay above 1,900 homes, compared with 1,529 last February.
- Flat to modest price growth. Median prices should stay flat to about 3% higher than last year in most areas, with more price reductions along the way.
- Sevier County keeps softening. Prices there will likely keep easing, and supply should stay above 8 months into spring.
- Tellico Village and Roane County stay strongest. Tight supply and fewer rate-sensitive buyers should keep prices rising 3–5%.
The big wildcard: mortgage rates
Where rates go will decide how spring 2027 plays out:
| Scenario | What happens | Likely mortgage rate | What it means locally |
|---|---|---|---|
| Most likely | Fed holds or raises once in December; Iran talks drag on | 7.0–7.5% | Slower sales, steady prices, more price cuts |
| Slower | Another Fed hike, hotter inflation, oil back above $110 | 7.5–8.0% | Sales fall further; some price declines in Knox and Blount by spring |
| Faster | Iran peace deal; oil and inflation ease | 6.6–6.9% by spring | Waiting buyers return quickly; prices rise 3–5% |
Key dates to watch: the Fed’s December 8–9 meeting, the November inflation report, and any progress in Iran peace talks.
What This Means for Sellers and Buyers in East Tennessee
Tips for selling your home in Knoxville
- Price it right from day one. Across the area, homes are selling for about 94–96% of their original asking price. The homes sitting longest are the ones that started too high.
- Act early if a price change is needed. Adjusting the price in the first few weeks usually costs less than sitting on the market all winter and competing with fresh spring listings.
- Make it show well. Buyers have more choices now, so condition and presentation matter. Well-prepared homes at the right price are still selling.
Tips for buying a home in Knoxville
- Use your negotiating power. Buyers have more room to negotiate than they’ve had in several years, especially in Sevier County, Lenoir City’s luxury tier and Knox County’s $300,000–$400,000 range.
- Ask for help with your rate. Instead of only asking for a lower price, ask the seller to pay for a mortgage rate buydown or your closing costs. That can lower your monthly payment more than a price cut would.
- Remember that waiting has a risk too. If mortgage rates drop, the buyers who have been waiting will come back quickly, and so will competition and multiple offers.
For investors and second-home buyers
Sevier County prices are resetting, and with more than 9 months of supply, you can be selective. Run the numbers using today’s interest rates and realistic rental occupancy, not the 2021–22 boom levels.
Knoxville Housing Market FAQ
Is the Knoxville housing market crashing?
No. Sales and contracts are down, but prices are still up from last year in most of East Tennessee. The October 2026 median sale price in Knox County was $410,000, up 7.9% from last October. The market is moving from favoring sellers toward a more balanced market, not collapsing.
Are home prices going down in Knoxville?
Not broadly. Prices rose from a year ago in eight of the nine local markets we track. Sevier County is the exception, where the median sale price fell 7.2%. We expect most local prices to stay flat to slightly higher this winter, with more price cuts on individual homes.
Is it a good time to buy a house in Knoxville?
Buyers have more choices and more negotiating power than they’ve had in years. Mortgage rates are high at 7.30%, but sellers are more willing to help with rate buydowns and closing costs. If rates fall in 2027, competition will likely pick back up.
What is the median home price in Knox County?
The median sale price for a single-family home in Knox County was $410,000 in October 2026. For the year to date, it’s about $400,000.
Where are homes selling fastest in East Tennessee?
Farragut is the fastest-moving market, with a typical home going under contract in about 20 days. Tellico Village has the tightest supply in the region, with 28% fewer homes for sale than last year.
Thinking About Buying or Selling? Let’s Talk
The Knoxville housing market is shifting, and every neighborhood is different. If you want to know what this means for your home, what your home is worth, or where the best opportunities are right now, contact me anytime.
Troy Stavros, CornerStone Realty Associates, LLC [phone] · [email]
Market data reflects single-family homes from local MLS reports through October 2026. National data from the National Association of REALTORS®, Realtor.com and Freddie Mac. This report is for informational purposes and is not financial advice.