East Tennessee Housing Market Report: July 2026 Data Analysis
By Troy Stavros | CornerStone Realty Associates | Published August 2026
The July MLS data is in, and the story across East Tennessee is significant. Across the 8 markets I track monthly, 7 of 8 posted tighter absorption rates than a year ago. Inventory is shrinking. Prices are appreciating. And buyers continue to transact despite mortgage rates hovering near 7% for the better part of two years.
The number that jumped off the page this month? Tellico Village. The absorption rate there collapsed 42.5% year over year — transforming from near-buyer’s-market territory at 5.86 months of supply to a definitive seller’s market at 3.37 months. That’s the single largest absorption rate shift in the entire region.
We also saw Roane County’s closings surge nearly 36%, Farragut’s median sale price push toward $750,000, Blount County’s median jump over 11% year over year, and Lenoir City resolve a pricing question from last month in exactly the direction the data suggested it would.
Let’s break down each market.
Knox County Housing Market — July 2026
Knox County remains the anchor of the East Tennessee real estate market. July delivered 792 closed sales, up 8.6% from last July. Year to date, Knox County has recorded 4,660 closings — a 7.2% increase over 2025. That kind of sustained volume growth in a 7% mortgage rate environment confirms that buyer demand has fully adapted to current conditions.
The median sale price rose to $410,000, up 3.8% year over year. The year-to-date median sits essentially flat at $399,900 versus $400,000 last year, which points to modest, sustainable appreciation. Nothing overheated. Nothing concerning. Just steady growth.
The absorption rate sits at 2.92 months, slightly improved from 3.01 a year ago. Active listings ticked up just 1.4%, and homes are still selling in a median of 20 days — it’s the overpriced outliers pulling the average higher.
Knox County Luxury Market Surge: The luxury segment is having a breakout year. The $700K–$750K bracket surged over 92%. The $800K–$850K range jumped 160%. Year to date, the $850K–$900K bracket is up over 72%. If you own a luxury home in Knox County, you are in a very strong position right now.
Knox County Forecast: Median sale price finishes 2026 in the $405K–$415K range. Total closings projected between 8,000 and 8,500 units for the year — a healthy 6%–9% increase over 2025. The market remains in balanced-to-slight-seller territory, and the lock-in effect continues to be the primary constraint on inventory.
Farragut Housing Market — July 2026
Farragut remains the most competitive residential market in East Tennessee. Closings rose nearly 24% year over year — 52 sales versus 42. Year to date, Farragut is up 14.4% in closings with pending sales up nearly 16%. The pipeline is robust.
The median sale price hit $749,950 in July — up almost 10% from $682,500 a year ago. The absorption rate tightened to 2.7 months from 3.3, an 18% improvement. Active listings fell 12% to just 117 homes on the market. At the current pace, every home listed would be absorbed in under 2.3 months.
The number sellers will love: the median days on market dropped to just 12 days. That’s down from 18 a year ago — a 33% reduction in marketing time. If your home is well-priced in Farragut, you’re going under contract in less than two weeks.
Farragut is increasingly a luxury market. The $800K–$850K bracket went from 1 sale last July to 5 this July. The $1M–$1.1M range produced 3 sales versus zero a year ago. Year to date, the $1.1M–$1.2M bracket is up 75%.
Farragut Forecast: Expect the median to push toward and potentially exceed $775K by Q4. Buyers should expect competitive conditions on anything well-priced under $800K, with multiple offers common in the $500K–$750K sweet spot. Sellers hold significant leverage, but the data shows the market still punishes overpricing — strategic pricing remains essential.
Blount County Housing Market — July 2026
Blount County delivered the strongest year-over-year price appreciation of any major market in this report. The median surged to $420,000, up over 11% from $377,800. The average sale price jumped nearly 14%. The gap between the July number and the year-to-date number tells me appreciation is accelerating, not flattening — the most recent data is outpacing the longer-term trend.
The Knox County Crossover: For the first time in this market cycle, Blount County’s median of $420K has crossed above Knox County’s median of $410K. A year ago, Blount was $13,000 below Knox. Today, it’s $10,000 above. That crossover is significant, and it may become permanent. If you’re a buyer considering Blount County, complacency is your biggest risk right now.
The absorption rate sits at 3.13 months — seller-favorable territory. New listings did rise nearly 14%, which is the strongest new-listing growth of any market this month, so sellers are responding to the pricing strength. That could moderate the imbalance over time.
Blount County Forecast: The median should sustain in the $405K–$430K range through year end. If new listing growth continues at 10%+ through Q3, the absorption rate could stabilize in the 3–3.3 range — still seller-favorable, but slightly less competitive than earlier this year.
Loudon County Housing Market — July 2026
Loudon County’s transformation continues to be one of the most dramatic stories in the region. Active listings plunged over 17% year over year — 75 fewer homes available compared to last July. The absorption rate has compressed from nearly 5 months a year ago to 3.52 today, a 29% improvement.
However, there’s a tension in Loudon County. While the absorption rate has tightened dramatically, the average days on market has moved in the opposite direction — up to 102 days from 78. The sale-to-original-list ratio sits at 93.8%, the lowest in the report except Sevier County. Sellers have structural leverage from the supply reduction, but they’re not capitalizing on it because they’re overpricing from day one. The market is tightening, but sellers are leaving money and time on the table through aspirational pricing.
Loudon County Forecast: Absorption rate should continue compressing toward 3–3.5 months. Median should finish the year in the $530K–$575K range. The message for Loudon County sellers is simple: price accurately from day one. The data is crystal clear that the market rewards precision and penalizes aspiration, even in a tightening environment.
Lenoir City Housing Market — July 2026
Last month I flagged Lenoir City as a market at a crossroads. June’s median had spiked to $529K, which conflicted with declining pending sales. I noted that if it was a sales-mix effect, the median would normalize back toward the $490K–$510K range. July’s median came in at $425K, confirming exactly that. This wasn’t depreciation — it was simply the composition of what sold changing month to month.
The year-to-date median of $479,000 versus $452,000 last year — that 4.2% gain — gives you the real underlying trend: stable, moderate appreciation.
Like Loudon County, Lenoir City shows elevated days on market and a sale-to-original-list ratio of 94.4%. Sellers throughout this area are overshooting on initial pricing. The absorption rate has tightened to 3.38 months, so conditions favor sellers — but you have to price right to capitalize.
Lenoir City Forecast: Median settles into the $460K–$490K range for the full year.
Tellico Village Housing Market — July 2026
Tellico Village is the transformation story of the summer. The absorption rate dropped from 5.86 months last July to 3.37 this July — a 42.5% reduction. That is the single most dramatic market shift in this entire report.
What’s driving it? Supply. Active listings collapsed 29% year over year, from 168 homes to just 119. New listings fell over 16% year to date. Homeowners in Tellico Village simply aren’t listing. Many are on favorable mortgage terms they don’t want to give up, and the community’s appeal means there’s limited motivation to leave. The result is a dramatic supply squeeze. On the demand side, closings actually declined 13% in July — so this isn’t a demand surge, it’s the disappearance of inventory creating competitive conditions.
The Days-on-Market Paradox: Average days on market jumped to 138 days, and the sale-to-original-list ratio of 93.7% is the lowest in the report. That seems contradictory with a 3-month absorption rate. But it makes sense when you understand that many current closings represent homes listed months ago at higher prices that eventually sold after reductions. The absorption rate reflects current dynamics. The days on market reflect past listing strategies. As sellers adjust their pricing expectations, days on market should come down.
Tellico Village Forecast: Median finishes 2026 in the $640K–$670K range. Absorption rate remains in the 3–3.8 range. If you own a home in Tellico Village and you’ve been thinking about listing, the market has shifted dramatically in your favor over the past 12 months. But realistic initial pricing is how you capitalize on it.
Anderson County Housing Market — July 2026
Anderson County continues to offer the region’s most accessible price point. The median rose to $334,900, up 3.3% year over year. On a year-to-date basis, the appreciation is more impressive: $345K versus $320K, a 7.8% gain. The average sale price year to date is up nearly 11%. Anderson County’s price growth is outpacing Knox County on a percentage basis, reflecting value discovery as buyers migrate to more affordable markets.
Active inventory rose 7% and new listings increased over 10%, so the absorption rate has loosened slightly to 3.29 months from 3.2. But even as supply grows, homes are selling significantly faster — average days on market dropped from 62 to 44, a 29% reduction. The new inventory is being absorbed quickly, not piling up.
Anderson County Forecast: Median finishes the year $340K–$355K, representing 6%–10% annual appreciation. The absorption rate will likely drift toward 3.2–3.5 months, giving buyers slightly more breathing room. For anyone priced out of Knox County at $410K or Blount County at $420K, Anderson County at $335K represents significant relative value with strong fundamentals. This remains the best entry point into the East Tennessee market.
Roane County Housing Market — July 2026
Roane County posted the strongest closings growth of any market in this report — 87 sales versus 64 a year ago. That’s a 35.9% surge. Year to date, closings are up over 21% with pending sales up over 20%. This is legitimate, sustained momentum — not a one-month blip.
The median jumped to $360K from $302,500, a 19% gain. With small sample sizes that number can be volatile month to month, so the year-to-date median of $344K versus $318K — an 8% gain — is the more reliable measure.
What’s really happening in Roane County is an upmarket migration. The $350K–$400K range surged 250%. The $400K–$450K bracket jumped 200%. It’s not just homes getting more expensive — the entire mix of what’s selling is shifting toward higher price points.
Roane County Forecast: Median settles in the $340K–$365K range. Transaction volume should moderate from that 36% growth rate but remain solidly positive. The absorption rate is on track to finish below 3.5 months for the year. For buyers, Roane County at $360K offers the second-most-affordable entry point behind Anderson County, with arguably the strongest momentum trajectory in the region.
Sevier County Housing Market — July 2026
Sevier County remains the region’s outlier and the lone buyer’s market in this report. Closings rose 12.4%, and active listings declined nearly 6%, so the trends are directionally positive. But the math is straightforward: 2,120 active listings against 191 monthly closings means it would take over 9 months to clear inventory. That’s deeply in buyer’s market territory.
The median ticked up to $465,950 — just a 1.4% gain, the most modest in the region. The sale-to-original-list ratio of 92.3% is the lowest anywhere I track, which means buyers have significant negotiating leverage. The structural challenge remains the concentration of investment properties and former short-term rentals weighing on supply.
Sevier County Forecast: Absorption rate gradually compresses toward 8.5–9 months by year end, but balanced conditions are not achievable in 2026. The median holds in the $460K–$480K range. If you’re selling in Sevier County, you need to price aggressively from day one. That 92.3% sale-to-original-list ratio means the average seller is leaving 7.7% on the table. In a market with 9+ months of supply, the sellers who price to market value on day one will dramatically outperform those who test and reduce.
Regional Absorption Rate Comparison — July 2026 vs. July 2025
The convergence toward uniformly tight conditions is the defining trend of 2026. Here’s how all 8 markets rank by absorption rate, tightest to loosest:
Farragut: 2.70 months (down from 3.30)
Knox County: 2.92 months (down from 3.01)
Blount County: 3.13 months (down from 3.54)
Roane County: 3.22 months (down from 3.60)
Anderson County: 3.29 months (up from 3.20)
Tellico Village: 3.37 months (down from 5.86)
Lenoir City: 3.38 months (down from 3.95)
Loudon County: 3.52 months (down from 4.96)
Sevier County: 9.34 months (the lone outlier)
Seven of eight markets are now clustered between 2.7 and 3.52 months. That’s a remarkably tight band for markets with very different price points and demographics. A year ago, this same group ranged from 3 to nearly 6 months.
What does this mean for buyers and sellers? The absorption rate tells you how many months it would take to sell every home currently on the market at the current pace of sales. A lower number means inventory is moving faster relative to supply. For sellers, that translates to less competition from other listings, stronger negotiating position, and shorter time on market. For buyers, it means fewer options, more competition for well-priced homes, and less leverage at the negotiating table. Generally, anything below 4 months favors sellers, 4–6 months is balanced, and above 6 months favors buyers.
Regional Median Price Rankings — July 2026
For pricing context across the region:
Farragut: $749,950
Tellico Village: $632,500
Loudon County: $564,950
Sevier County: $465,950
Lenoir City: $425,000
Blount County: $420,000
Knox County: $410,000
Roane County: $360,000
Anderson County: $334,900
There’s a market for every budget in East Tennessee.
Macro Factors Shaping East Tennessee Real Estate in 2026
Mortgage Rates and the Lock-In Effect
The headline number: 6.71% for a conforming 30-year fixed mortgage. That’s essentially where rates have been, give or take 30 basis points, for 18 months. The 7% rate environment is no longer suppressing this market — it’s shaping it.
The lock-in effect — the simple math that trading a 3.25% mortgage for a 6.71% mortgage makes no financial sense — is the single most powerful force in East Tennessee real estate right now. It explains the absorption rate compression in Tellico Village. It explains why Farragut has just 117 active listings. It explains why Roane County’s new listings grew only 4% while closings surged 36%. Homeowners are staying put because the math of moving doesn’t work, and that’s choking supply across the board.
The Federal Reserve and Rate Outlook
The Federal Reserve under Chairman Kevin Warsh holds the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75% and has adopted a posture of deliberate ambiguity. No forward guidance. No signals on cuts or hikes. Just sustained uncertainty. For housing, this means continued rate stability in the mid-to-high 6s — exactly the environment that perpetuates the lock-in dynamic.
If rates dropped toward 5.5%, we’d see existing homeowners list, easing supply. If rates spiked toward 8%, demand would crater. Instead, we’re in the zone that simultaneously discourages listing and allows adapted buyers to transact. That’s the precise combination producing the tight conditions documented throughout this report.
Inflation and the Housing Feedback Loop
Headline CPI came in at 3.4% in July — still above the 2% target. Core CPI at 2.48% is tantalizingly close to target, which explains why the Fed isn’t hiking further. But there’s a feedback loop that matters for real estate: persistent shelter inflation keeps the headline elevated, high rates suppress supply, tight supply supports home prices, elevated prices feed into CPI, and elevated CPI keeps rates high. Breaking that loop requires either a supply surge or an external shock, and neither appears imminent.
GDP and Economic Growth
Real GDP growth decelerated to 1.5% annualized in Q2, down from 2.1% in Q1. For East Tennessee, this moderate cooling is actually favorable. It’s slow enough to keep inflation contained and prevent hikes, but strong enough to support employment, consumer confidence, and household formation — the underlying demand drivers for housing.
Energy Prices — The Wildcard
Brent crude at $88.50 a barrel — up 30% year over year — is filtering directly into consumer budgets. For a car-dependent region like East Tennessee, higher fuel costs reduce the monthly budget available for housing. When filling up the tank costs $20 more per week than a year ago, that $80+ monthly impact competes directly with mortgage capacity. At the margin, this may be contributing to the slight softening in buyer urgency visible in markets like Loudon County and Lenoir City, where pending sales dipped even as supply tightened.
Rate Forecast Through Year End
Rates remain range-bound between 6.4% and 7% through year end. The Fed has no compelling reason to cut with headline CPI above 3%, no reason to hike with core essentially at target and GDP decelerating. The most likely scenario is continued pause, continued stability, continued lock-in effect, continued tight supply.
The practical implication for buyers: waiting for meaningfully lower rates is not a viable strategy. If the Fed begins cutting in early 2027 — which markets appear to be pricing as the earliest realistic timeline — the resulting wave of new listings would ease supply pressure, but it would also bring significantly more buyer competition into the market. The buyers who transact today at 6.71% with 2.7–3.5 month absorption rates will likely have better negotiating position than those who wait for 5.75% rates in a market flooded with returning buyers.
Four Trends to Watch — Second Half of 2026
Tellico Village and Loudon County inventory tightening. If it continues, we could see sub-3-month absorption rates by Q4, and that’s when price appreciation really accelerates.
Blount County’s pricing crossover with Knox County. If that persists, it represents a fundamental shift in relative value and could redirect buyer traffic patterns across the region.
Roane County’s sustained volume growth. At 21% year-to-date closings growth, the market is absorbing buyers at a rate that will exhaust supply if it continues. Watch for compression below 3 months.
Sevier County’s inventory trajectory. Can closings sustain 12%+ growth while inventory keeps declining? If both hold, the absorption rate could break below 9 months by Q4.
Bottom Line for East Tennessee Sellers
Conditions favor you across the region, but pricing strategy still matters enormously. The markets with the highest days on market — Tellico Village, Sevier County, Loudon County — are markets where sellers are consistently overpricing and paying for it. The markets where homes sell fastest — Farragut at 12 days, Blount County at 17, Knox County at 20 — are markets where pricing accuracy is driving efficient outcomes. Price it right from day one, and this market will reward you.
Bottom Line for East Tennessee Buyers
The best value opportunities remain Anderson County at $335K and Roane County at $360K — strong fundamentals at price points well below the regional average. Sevier County offers the most negotiating leverage, but comes with structural challenges. And in every market, the data shows that acting on current conditions rather than waiting for hypothetical rate relief continues to be the winning strategy.
About Troy Stavros
Troy Stavros is a residential real estate professional with CornerStone Realty Associates, serving buyers and sellers across Knox County, Farragut, Blount County, Loudon County, Lenoir City, Tellico Village, Anderson County, Roane County, and Sevier County. Troy publishes monthly data-driven market reports covering the greater East Tennessee region.
Ready to discuss your next move in East Tennessee real estate? Whether you’re buying, selling, or simply exploring your options, Troy is available for a no-obligation conversation about your specific situation.
Call or Text Troy at 865-999-0925 today!