What the latest steps to avert the fiscal cliff mean to the Knoxville real estate market.

In order to avoid the fiscal cliff, a budget package was passed by the U.S. Congress on New Years Day. Implications for homeowners and the Knoxville real estate market include: tax rates remaining the same for most households and the extension of mortgage cancellation relief.

The “American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012’’ that was passed by Congress extends current tax rates for all households earning less than $450,000, and $400,000 for individual filers. Households earning above these limits will see tax rates revert to where they were in 2003, meaning taxpayers in the highest bracket would pay taxes on ordinary income at a rate of 39.6%, up from 35%. The tax rate on capital gains would also remain the same, at 15%, for most households, but for those earning above the $400,000-$450,000 threshold, the rate would rise to 20%.

Troy Stavros, Broker and Partner with the 865 Real Estate team stated, “From a real estate standpoint, this could have gone in a bad direction and gladly did not. With the Congress keeping the provisions for the exclusion from taxes on the sale of a principal residence and important tax exemptions for homeowners, I feel housing can continue on it’s course of positive momentum.”

Good news from a homeowner’s perspective, the exclusion from taxes for gains on the sale of a principal residence of up to $500,000 ($250,000 for individuals) remains intact, so only home sellers whose income is $450,000 or above, AND the gain on the sale of their house is above $500,000 would pay taxes on the excess capital gains at the higher rate. Therefore there is no change for the majority of home sellers.

Extenders, which keep in place expiring tax provisions, are also included. Of most interest to the Knoxville real estate market, the “American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012’’ would extend mortgage cancellation relief for home owners or sellers who have a portion of their mortgage debt forgiven by their lender. This is typically seen in a short sale or foreclosure sale for sellers or a modification for owners. Without this extension, the debt forgiven would be taxable, adding additional financial burden to already underwater homeowners. Also extended are deductions for state and local property taxes and mortgage insurance premiums, which, along with the mortgage interest deduction, are important tax considerations for home owners and buyers.

Troy Stavros, Broker and Partner with the 865 Real Estate team stated, “As we look into our crystal ball at what we project 2013 to look like, it has positives and negatives for both buyers and sellers of Knoxville real estate. The good news for everyone is that, unless we fall of the fiscal cliff or the Mortgage Interest Deduction gets monkeyed with, the vision is one of a good year for housing.”

Vision #1: Home prices and rents on the rise.

We’ve already seen the lack of new construction raising the national and Knoxville real estate prices in 2012, and we can expect that trend to continue into 2013. Since the housing downturn, national new construction has been at 500,000 units or less for the last 6 years. Experts say construction of new homes and apartments need to be between 1.25 and 1.5 million a year to keep pace with population growth. This shortfall leads to a lack of supply which translates to demand, equaling higher home prices and rents.

Vision #2: Less foreclosure deals and more short sales.

Sales of foreclosed homes fell to approximately 11% of all sales in June 2012, down from about 28% in March 2011. The decrease is partly because the large government entities, along with banks, have been liquidating hundreds of distressed home loans in bulk to purchasers who agree to work out new terms with borrowers rather than foreclosing. Another factor for the drop looks back to our 1st Vision. Rising home prices have improved the equity position of thousands of buyers who were once upside-down.

Also reducing foreclosures is their alternative, the “short sale”. Short sales are deals in which a home sells for less than what the borrower owes on the mortgage, with the bank agreeing to accept the sale in lieu of going through an expensive and time-consuming foreclosure. Within the past few months, FHFA issued new rules on short sales for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reducing the documentation that borrowers have to show to demonstrate hardship. Also borrowers now aren’t necessarily required to pay the difference between what they owe on the mortgage and the final sales price. These changes will have national and Knoxville real estate seeing more short sales in 2013.

Vision #3: Higher home construction costs.

Even though levels of home construction are at record lows, costs of building materials like sheet rock, lumber, and copper are on the rise. The last few lean years in construction caused many construction workers to either migrate out of the country or into other occupations, leaving less qualified construction workers. Once again a low supply of workers means they can demand more for their services. Couple the higher material costs with the increased cost of construction labor and that equals higher home construction costs.

Vision #4: Higher mortgage interest rates but loosened lending standards.

The National Association of REALTORS predicts rates will gradually rise to 4% by the end of 2013. While this is still extremely low, economists believe that while we are currently witnessing historically low rates, there is only one way for them to go. Currently, the average credit score of a borrower looking to obtain a mortgage is 760. This is significantly higher than averages in the past, because of an overcorrection by banks coming out of the recession. Look for lending standards to loosen a bit as lenders try to compete for the business.

On December 10th, mortgage giant, Freddie Mac released it’s U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook for December. The report looks ahead to 2013 and gives us a prediction as to what can be expected in the housing market.

Coming off many consecutive months of positive news, the outlook is that the housing market will continue to advance into the new year. The two major points of the report were:

1. Long term mortgage rates should remain near their record low levels through the first half of 2013 and gradually rise during the second half of the year. Even with the second half rise, rates should remain below 4%.

2. Home values should continue to rise with most U.S. price indexes seeing a 2 to 3% increase in 2013.

Freddie Mac’s chief economist, Frank Nothaft stated, “The last few months have brought a spate of favorable news on the U.S. housing market with construction up, more home sales, and home-value growth turning positive. This has been a big change from a year ago, when some analysts worried that the looming ‘shadow inventory’ would keep the housing sector mired in an economic depression. Instead, the housing market is healing, is contributing positively to GDP and is returning to its traditional role of supporting the economic recovery.”

Troy Stavros, Broker and Partner with the 865 Real Estate team added, “What we are seeing in the local Knoxville real estate market is in line with Mr. Northaft’s projections. With the low inventory levels we are witnessing, we could see Knoxville home values rise even faster than predicted. The affordability of housing right now is at historical levels. Buyers are seeing this and entering the market. Lack of Knoxville homes for sale is leading to competition. It doesn’t happen very often when it is a great time to be a buyer and it’s a market where there might be competition for your home if you are a seller. Unless you are currently underwater in your current home, there should be no more excuses, it’s time to get off the fence and into the market.”.